India's GDP growth projected to hit four-year-low of 6.4% in FY25, down from 8.2% last year: Govt estimates
GH News January 07, 2025 08:04 PM
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at 6.4% in the fiscal year 2024-25, marking a four-year low and a significant slowdown from the 8.2% growth recorded in FY24, as per government data released on Tuesday.This projection is lower than the Reserve Bank's recent estimate of 6.6% growth for the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2025.In its first advance estimates of national income for 2024-25, the National Statistical Office (NSO) stated, "real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent in FY2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2 per cent in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY2023-24."The data also showed that real Gross Value Added (GVA) is projected to grow by 6.4% in FY25, down from 7.2% in FY24. On the other hand, nominal GVA is expected to rise by 9.3% in FY25, slightly surpassing the 8.5% growth recorded in the previous fiscal year.The advance GDP estimate is a key indicator for framing the Union Budget and signals a slowdown in economic activity. This forecast follows a significant decline in growth during the July-September quarter of FY24, which registered at 5.4%, catching analysts and policymakers by surprise.The unexpected slowdown in the second quarter prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revise its growth forecast for FY24, lowering it to 6.6% from the previous estimate of 7.2%.Government data indicated that the agriculture and allied sectors are expected to grow by 3.8% in FY25, a significant improvement from the 1.4% growth recorded in FY24.Additionally, the real GVA of the construction sector is projected to grow by 8.6%, while the financial, real estate, and professional services sector is expected to see a growth of 7.3% during FY25.Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices is forecasted to grow by 7.3% in FY25, up from 4.0% growth in the previous fiscal year, according to the government release."Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at constant prices, has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1% as compared to the growth rate of 2.5% in the previous financial year," it further added.The figures highlight a challenging economic outlook as the government finalizes its fiscal plan for FY25. With GDP growth slowing, policymakers will face the difficult task of balancing fiscal stability while fostering economic recovery. 
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