Five years ago on Friday, two contrasting groups assembled near Britain's Parliament: one waving Union Jacks in celebration, the other clutching flags in sorrow. On Jan. 31, 2020, at 11 pm - midnight in Brussels – the UK formally bid farewell to the EU after nearly half a century of membership that had enabled seamless movement and trade with 27 European nations.
For enthusiasts, it marked the rebirth of the UK as a sovereign entity master of its fate. Detractors, however, lamented over a nation they perceived as isolated and diminished.
The country was undeniably split, having taken a gamble into uncertainty. Five years down the line, the repercussions are still being felt across economic, social, and cultural spheres.
"The impact has been really quite profound," observed Anand Menon, political scientist and director of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe. He noted the significant changes, saying, "It’s changed our economy."
Menon also pointed out the lasting effects on the political landscape: "And our politics has been changed quite fundamentally as well," he said. "We’ve seen a new division around Brexit becoming part of electoral politics."
Britain had always maintained a somewhat strained relationship with the EU. The 2016 referendum in June, which asked whether to stay or depart from the bloc, came at a time when decades of industrial decline, austerity measures, and high immigration levels created a fertile environment for the pro-Brexit argument that leaving would allow the UK to "take back control" over its borders, laws, and financial affairs.
Many were taken aback by the Brexit referendum result — a 52% to 48% split in favor of leaving the EU. The outcome was unforeseen, as neither the Tory government, which had supported remaining in the bloc, nor the pro-Brexit side had anticipated the complicated proceedings that would ensue after the vote.
What followed was an arduous stretch marked by political wrangling over the terms of the separation, causing Parliamentary deadlock and leading to Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation in 2019. Her successor, , took office with a firm promise to "get Brexit done."
However, the process proved far from straightforward. After splitting from the EU without settling on future economic ties—a move affecting half of the UK's trade—the UK underwent 11 months of intense negotiations. Finally, on Eve 2020, a deal was struck.
The minimalist trade agreement meant the UK exited the single market and customs union, allowing tariff- and quota-free movement of goods but introducing new bureaucracy, extra costs, and delays for trade-dependent businesses. One such business owner, Lars Andersen of My Nametags in London, admitted: "It has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived," noting how his company, despite the challenges, continues to ship personalized labels for children's items to over 150 countries.
To maintain trade with the EU, Andersen has been compelled to establish a base in Ireland, creating a necessary detour for all EU-bound orders. Despite the inconvenience, he believes it's been worthwhile, although he's aware of other small businesses that have either ceased trading with the EU or relocated their manufacturing from the UK.
Julianne Ponan, the founder and CEO of Creative Nature, an allergen-free food producer, saw her burgeoning export business to EU countries decimated by Brexit. However, she has since successfully pivoted to markets in the Middle East and , viewing this as a silver lining of the EU departure.
Now that she's navigated the new bureaucratic hurdles, she's slowly rebuilding her European business. "But we’ve lost four years of growth there," she lamented.
"And that’s the sad part. We would be a lot further ahead in our journey if Brexit hadn’t happened."
The government's Office for Responsibility projects that UK exports and imports will both suffer a long-term reduction of around 15% compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU, with economic productivity taking a 4% hit. Nevertheless, Brexit proponents contend that the short-term difficulties will be balanced out by Britain's newfound ability to forge global trade deals.
Post-Brexit, the UK has secured trade agreements with nations including Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.
Trade expert David Henig from the European Center for International Political Economy has pointed out that despite some resilience among major industries, the overall picture isn't so rosy: "The big players aren’t so much affected," he said. "We still have Airbus, we still have Scotch whisky. We still do defense, big pharmaceuticals. But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position. And nobody new is coming in to set up."
Brexit's consequences haven't quite matched what was expected by either side of the debate. The economic turmoil brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and ’s invasion of has compounded the difficulties, blurring the lines of Brexit's direct effects on the UK economy.
In a surprising twist, immigration, which was a key issue driving the Brexit vote with many hoping it would decrease, has actually increased. This is due to a surge in worker visas being issued globally, which has led to higher immigration levels than before Britain left the EU.
The political landscape has also shifted dramatically, with the return of protectionist leaders like US President . This puts Britain in a precarious position, navigating its relationship with close European neighbours and maintaining its trans-Atlantic ties with the US. "The is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave," commented Menon.
Polls are showing a shift in mood among the British public, as a majority now appear to regret the Brexit decision. However, while rejoining the European Union seems like a long shot, there's little appetite to reignite the fiery debates of the past.
Sir , who won the keys to Number 10 in July 2024, has pledged to improve UK-EU relations but has clearly stated that a return to the customs union or single market is off the table. The Labour Prime Minister is instead targeting more achievable goals such as easing travel for artists and mutual recognition of professional qualifications, alongside bolstering collaboration on matters of law enforcement and security.
EU chiefs have noted and appreciated the UK's softer approach, yet they're handling their own tightrope walk with rising populist sentiments across Europe—making the UK concerns less of an urgent matter on their agenda. Andersen commented on the delicate situation, saying "I completely understand, it’s difficult to get back together after quite a harsh divorce," but she remains hopeful that over time, Britain and the EU will gradually rebuild a closer relationship.
"I suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without politicians particularly shouting about it."
