Groundhog Phil saw his shadow this morning, predicting six more weeks of winter, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. The annual Groundhog Day ceremony took place early Sunday at Gobbler's Knob, drawing a large crowd that chanted "Phil" as the famous groundhog emerged from his burrow to deliver his forecast, BBC reported.

But how accurate are Phil’s predictions?

Groundhog Day Tradition

Groundhog Day, celebrated in the U.S. and Canada, traces its origins to the German Candlemas tradition, where a badger’s emergence was believed to predict winter’s length. German settlers in Pennsylvania adapted this practice, replacing the badger with a groundhog. The first official Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney took place in 1887.

The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, which cares for Phil, claims he has been making predictions for over a century thanks to a “secret recipe” elixir that extends his lifespan.

Groundhog Day Accuracy?

Despite claims that Phil is always right, historical records suggest otherwise. The Farmers’ Almanac notes that Phil’s predictions, dating back to 1887, have not always been accurate. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) study ranked him 17th out of 19 weather-predicting animals, with a 35% accuracy rate. In contrast, Staten Island Chuck in New York boasts an 85% accuracy rate, followed by General Beauregard Lee of Georgia at 80%.

The Science Behind Groundhog Day

Held every February 2, Groundhog Day falls midway between the winter solstice and spring equinox, aligning with ancient seasonal observances. The holiday shares roots with Imbolc, a Pagan festival, and Candlemas Day, a Christian tradition.

While Punxsutawney Phil remains a beloved tradition, science suggests you may want to check the meteorologist’s forecast before packing away your winter coat.