The BJP pulled off a major political upset on Saturday, unseating the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and returning to power in Delhi after more than 25 years. At the time of filing this report, Election Commission data showed the BJP was set to win around 48 seats, while AAP is expected to secure 22 in the 70-seat Delhi assembly.

In the 2020 elections, AAP had won 62 seats, a decline from 67 in 2015, while the BJP increased its seats to 8. The Congress failed to win any seats in all three elections.

So what went wrong for AAP?

Anti-incumbency: After two terms in power, Delhi voters were frustrated with poor infrastructure, air and water quality, and water shortages. AAP’s constant blaming of the BJP-led Central government led many to question: what will change if AAP returns to power? Despite efforts like shifting former deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia to Jangpura, AAP struggled to regain support, with even party supremo Arvind Kejriwal unable to save his seat.

While AAP initially earned support through improvements in education and healthcare, failure to deliver on promises like cleaner air and better infrastructure led to growing disillusionment. Voters were increasingly sceptical of its claims that the BJP was blocking progress, while the BJP’s 'double-engine government' promise resonated with voters weary of AAP’s constant feuds with the Centre.

Kejriwal's perceived arrogance: Kejriwal in particular drew flak for his controversial remarks about Purvanchalis, a community culturally rooted in the Bhojpuri-speaking regions of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and a vital vote bank in Delhi. In end-January, the Congress accused him of trivialising the community's contributions by suggesting they exploited Delhi’s public services. “Kejriwal insults us by saying we come on a Rs 500 ticket and leave after availing Rs 5 lakh worth of treatment,” Bihar Congress president Akhilesh Prasad Singh said.

Welfare schemes: Free electricity and bus rides initially earned AAP strong support, but worsening issues such as overflowing sewage and potholes led to frustration. The BJP promised to continue these welfare schemes, focusing on transparency and anti-corruption, positioning itself as a better alternative to AAP’s unfulfilled promises. Poor infrastructure, including potholed roads, overflowing drains, and inconsistent garbage collection, damaged the AAP’s credibility.

Corruption allegations: The BJP saw the election result as a verdict on AAP’s corruption scandals, including the ‘sheesh mahal’ renovation and the alleged excise policy scam. The AAP tried to deflect blame by accusing the BJP of using agencies like the ED and CBI to target its leaders, but voters remained unconvinced. The arrests of Kejriwal, Sisodia, Satyender Jain, Sanjay Singh, and other senior figures tarnished AAP’s image, leaving the party hoping for a favourable court outcome.

MCD and governance failures: AAP’s promises of a cleaner city after the 2022 MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections fell flat. Voters grew frustrated with poor infrastructure and the stalled MCD House. AAP blamed the Centre for blocking its projects, but many held the party responsible for the city's deteriorating roads, sewage, and water supply.

Congress Influence: Though the Congress’ vote share was low, it weakened AAP by targeting Kejriwal over corruption and unfulfilled promises. Rahul Gandhi’s campaign, which criticised AAP’s governance and issues like Yamuna cleaning, helped bring back some former Congress voters. Over the past decade, the Congress had lost much of its base to AAP, but Gandhi’s aggressive campaign, including attacks on Kejriwal over the 'Sheesh Mahal' and alleged scams, proved effective.

Gandhi accused Kejriwal of making false promises, like Modi, especially regarding the Yamuna cleaning. He also challenged Kejriwal to drink Delhi's tap water, implying it was still polluted despite promises to clean it.

BJP's focus on Kejriwal and local issues: Unlike previous campaigns, the BJP focused on Kejriwal’s governance and local issues like air pollution and traffic, rather than Hindutva. This broad approach, targeting key demographics like Purvanchalis and slum dwellers, resonated with a wider electorate, including those previously mobilised in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s campaign strategy effectively undermined AAP’s credibility by focusing on corruption and governance, rather than religious issues.