The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet today to decide whether to change the Base Rate. While rates have been gradually cut since August, they are expected to remain at 4.5% amid growing global uncertainty.

Recent data shows mixed signals in the UK job market. Regular earnings growth stayed at 5.9% in the three months to January, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%. These factors, particularly wages, are key inflation indicators that the MPC will likely consider.

Meanwhile, Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3% in January, driven by energy prices, water bills, and bus fares. The UK economy shows signs of stagnation, with GDP contracting by 0.1% in January, following minimal growth in Q4.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also . The OECD warned that "further fragmentation of the global economy" was a significant concern amid trade tensions sparked by US President Donald Trump. The OECD warned that this would likely increase inflation worldwide and further impact living standards.

With Bank Governor Andrew Bailey stressing intentions to take a "gradual and careful approach" to reducing rates, most analysts anticipate a dovish freeze on Thursday followed by a greater likelihood of cuts in May. Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said: "Given the broad consensus for a 'careful' approach to removing policy restraint, we expect the MPC to be in no rush to cut rates on March 20."

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