Trump wants to rework an international trading system that he genuinely believes has cheated the US. He doesn't want to just tweak it. He wants to take it behind a garage and go over it with a tyre-iron. Or a tariff-iron.
And he belaboured global trade with them on Wednesday. Much of the planet is in shock. This includes penguins and seals who are the sole inhabitants of Heard and McDonald Islands, an Australian external territory near Antarctica, which has been slapped with a 10% tariff.
India is mildly disappointed that its constructive and radical offer to Washington - zero-for-zero tariffs on 70% of manufactured goods - didn't give it a reprieve beyond pharma. But GoI has sensibly taken a 'Keep Calm and Carry On' attitude to what it has come to recognise is a period of geopolitical upheaval, as the US, Russia and China, in their separate ways, disorder the global order.
The tariff announcement is giving rise to memes on the net, and migraines among government officials. Trump's hit list seems to have been put together in a god-awful hurry, with the US Trade Representative (USTR) office overwhelmed by the prez's request for rates that combined tariff differentials, non-trade barriers, sales taxes, and how much he wants to absorb the country into the US. Results were tariff calculations that made little sense numerically. Thus, Lesotho was tariffed 50%, Norfolk Island 29% (though it's part of Australia, which got a 10% hit), and Greenland and Canada not even mentioned.
But there is a method somewhere in Don's madness. MAGAnomics argues that international trade has been undermined by Chinese economic trickery (true); that the US must assume the trading system is no longer fair (kind of); and that the US must restore its industrial might through rampant tariffs and a rampaging Elon Musk (doubtful).
The world, however, must ride out the economic consequences until Trump comes up with a more sensible revival plan. Or Washington comes up with a new president. Each country has to plot out a response plan. Squid Game and The Hunger Games are models for international survival.
Some countries, like Canada and the EU, have chosen tariff retaliation and threats to reduce defence ties. Others, especially countries in Asia, have been more cautious and preferred a mix of concessions and deal offers. India, Mexico and a few others, whose fortunes are closely tied to the US, are the furthest down the last path.
India offered unilateral tariff cuts, proposed a bilateral trade agreement (BTA), tabled its zero-for-zero offer, and has worked out negotiations over the next few months that will seek agreements, sector by sector, in almost every goods category. Indian industry has been quick to understand what is at stake, with textiles, auto components, jewellery, pharma and electronics sectors coming out in favour of zero-for-zero in return for market access agreements.
Bumpy sections of the negotiation process will not be goods - though they are Trump's obsession - but certain farm products like dairy and grain and, further down the road, regulations in tech sectors, ranging from cloud services to ecommerce, data localisation to open network platforms. What is happening now is noisy, but relatively easy. What will roll out over the next few months will be quieter, but much thornier.
This will be a major test of India's engagement with the global economy. Trade agreements are India's forte. Having to shed a 1970s attitude to trade, to do so bilaterally, under the gun and in new economy sectors, will be a trial by fire. But it is necessary. The US is overwhelmingly India's main economic partner - the country's largest source of FDI, portfolio investment and remittances - and a nose-length behind China in trade.
India's economy has been driven for nearly two decades by IT-related service exports: the primary market is the US. Forget about tariffs. Trump should be applauded for being unconcerned about India's massive $60 bn service surplus with the US. (The applause should be hushed, just in case he didn't know.)
And there is more to this than just old-style trade and capital. The Biden administration outlined plans for integrated supply chains in semiconductors, advanced materials, pharmaceuticals and more. Trump has not only endorsed all of this, he has added drones and other technologies. As his aides have told their Indian counterparts, 'Security, technology and trade are the bases of the Indo-US relationship. Resolve the president's trade stuff, and we can move ahead on the other two well beyond what Biden had promised.'
If Narendra Modi and Trump have another summit this year where they can sign off on a BTA, it will be as much about reducing India's risk profile as it will be about securing economic relations with the US. Governments are watching each other to see who comes up with the first Trump Fix. Thus, Vietnam, rabbit-punched by a 46% tariff, is belatedly taking the path India started down in January - unilaterally cutting tariffs for anything remotely American. While a few will choose vendetta, most countries will do the same. Beyond the shock, awe and confusion, India is ahead of the trade curve, but still has several more rounds before the bell goes.
And he belaboured global trade with them on Wednesday. Much of the planet is in shock. This includes penguins and seals who are the sole inhabitants of Heard and McDonald Islands, an Australian external territory near Antarctica, which has been slapped with a 10% tariff.
India is mildly disappointed that its constructive and radical offer to Washington - zero-for-zero tariffs on 70% of manufactured goods - didn't give it a reprieve beyond pharma. But GoI has sensibly taken a 'Keep Calm and Carry On' attitude to what it has come to recognise is a period of geopolitical upheaval, as the US, Russia and China, in their separate ways, disorder the global order.
The tariff announcement is giving rise to memes on the net, and migraines among government officials. Trump's hit list seems to have been put together in a god-awful hurry, with the US Trade Representative (USTR) office overwhelmed by the prez's request for rates that combined tariff differentials, non-trade barriers, sales taxes, and how much he wants to absorb the country into the US. Results were tariff calculations that made little sense numerically. Thus, Lesotho was tariffed 50%, Norfolk Island 29% (though it's part of Australia, which got a 10% hit), and Greenland and Canada not even mentioned.
But there is a method somewhere in Don's madness. MAGAnomics argues that international trade has been undermined by Chinese economic trickery (true); that the US must assume the trading system is no longer fair (kind of); and that the US must restore its industrial might through rampant tariffs and a rampaging Elon Musk (doubtful).
The world, however, must ride out the economic consequences until Trump comes up with a more sensible revival plan. Or Washington comes up with a new president. Each country has to plot out a response plan. Squid Game and The Hunger Games are models for international survival.
Some countries, like Canada and the EU, have chosen tariff retaliation and threats to reduce defence ties. Others, especially countries in Asia, have been more cautious and preferred a mix of concessions and deal offers. India, Mexico and a few others, whose fortunes are closely tied to the US, are the furthest down the last path.
India offered unilateral tariff cuts, proposed a bilateral trade agreement (BTA), tabled its zero-for-zero offer, and has worked out negotiations over the next few months that will seek agreements, sector by sector, in almost every goods category. Indian industry has been quick to understand what is at stake, with textiles, auto components, jewellery, pharma and electronics sectors coming out in favour of zero-for-zero in return for market access agreements.
Bumpy sections of the negotiation process will not be goods - though they are Trump's obsession - but certain farm products like dairy and grain and, further down the road, regulations in tech sectors, ranging from cloud services to ecommerce, data localisation to open network platforms. What is happening now is noisy, but relatively easy. What will roll out over the next few months will be quieter, but much thornier.
This will be a major test of India's engagement with the global economy. Trade agreements are India's forte. Having to shed a 1970s attitude to trade, to do so bilaterally, under the gun and in new economy sectors, will be a trial by fire. But it is necessary. The US is overwhelmingly India's main economic partner - the country's largest source of FDI, portfolio investment and remittances - and a nose-length behind China in trade.
India's economy has been driven for nearly two decades by IT-related service exports: the primary market is the US. Forget about tariffs. Trump should be applauded for being unconcerned about India's massive $60 bn service surplus with the US. (The applause should be hushed, just in case he didn't know.)
And there is more to this than just old-style trade and capital. The Biden administration outlined plans for integrated supply chains in semiconductors, advanced materials, pharmaceuticals and more. Trump has not only endorsed all of this, he has added drones and other technologies. As his aides have told their Indian counterparts, 'Security, technology and trade are the bases of the Indo-US relationship. Resolve the president's trade stuff, and we can move ahead on the other two well beyond what Biden had promised.'
If Narendra Modi and Trump have another summit this year where they can sign off on a BTA, it will be as much about reducing India's risk profile as it will be about securing economic relations with the US. Governments are watching each other to see who comes up with the first Trump Fix. Thus, Vietnam, rabbit-punched by a 46% tariff, is belatedly taking the path India started down in January - unilaterally cutting tariffs for anything remotely American. While a few will choose vendetta, most countries will do the same. Beyond the shock, awe and confusion, India is ahead of the trade curve, but still has several more rounds before the bell goes.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
Pramit Pal Chaudhuri
Head, South Asia practice, Eurasia Group