In a desperate attempt to make inroads in Tamil Nadu, which has proved elusive for it so far, the BJP hastily stitched up an alliance with the AIADMK ahead of next year’s Assembly election, two years after the Dravidian party walked out of a tie-up with the saffron party. Banking on anti-incumbency against the DMK government in the state, the BJP is hoping that the pact with the Edappadi Palanisami-led AIADMK will help the NDA to form government in the southern state in 2026. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which the BJP fought on its own, its performance was disappointing, to say the least. The saffron party is hoping that this alliance will draw in other smaller parties like the PMK and DMDK. The BJP’s decision to drop its charismatic state unit president K. Annamalai at the behest of EPS is a pointer to how much it is willing to accommodate its ally’s demands. The EPS-Annamalai tug-of-war is largely over caste, as both of them are Goundars who have sway over large regions of the state. The new BJP chief, Nainar Nagentharan, is a Thevar from southern Tamil Nadu, and the community constitutes a sizeable chunk of votes.

While the optics at the announcement of the alliance were one of bonhomie, the AIADMK cadres are not overly enthused by the move. Confident as they had been of ousting the DMK government, plagued by allegations of corruption, crimes against women and rampant drug abuse, they fear the erosion of minority votes because of the tie-up with the BJP. They feel it is an unnatural alliance, and there may not be a natural transference of votes between the AIADMK and the BJP. For the BJP, it is a win-win situation because on its own it cannot hope to make any dent in the southern state, but riding piggyback on the Dravidian party, albeit one whose glory days are over, may prove beneficial. The BJP has about a 10-12 per cent vote share, the AIADMK 25 per cent and other anti-DMK parties have about 7-8 per cent. This adds up to over 40 per cent, which the BJP hopes will propel the alliance to power in the state.

Another crucial factor in the Tamil Nadu elections is actor Vijay’s TVK party. For the AIADMK, it was a choice between the actor and the BJP, and it settled for the latter. Insiders are disappointed with the EPS’ decision to surrender to the BJP, which they feel was largely to protect a few ministers against whom cases have piled up. Though a common minimum programme will be drawn up so that the BJP cannot ride roughshod over some of the AIADMK’s key concerns, such as protection of minorities, it is clear the saffron party is elated over its southern outreach. The electoral arithmetic in Tamil Nadu will become clearer in the next few months, as many parties are playing their cards close to the chest. The father-son duo of S. Ramadoss and Anbumani Ramadoss of the PMK differ on whether to align with the AIADMK or the BJP, with the latter, against whom there are a couple of cases, keen on a tie-up with the saffron party. In more good news for the BJP, the AIADMK joining the NDA will boost its numbers in the Rajya Sabha. It remains to be seen if Tamil voters will shed their antipathy to what they see as a north Indian party and give the BJP a chance.