Good Friday looks set to kick off the four-day weekend with a bang as forecasters predict temperatures surging beyond 15C, briefly closing out a gloomy week before rain returns with a vengeance.

The last week has landed as one of the more grim the country has seen in recent months in terms, with bursts of rainfall and cooler temperatures dominating across the UK. The typically springlike to-and-fro looks likely to continue into the weekend, but with doses of sunshine mixed in, according to the latest forecast. But even that looks likely to be short-lived today, with the warning that rainfall will douse the brighter conditions that develop early on this morning.

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The Met Office forecast for today states that rain will first develop over the south and west of the country and spread eastwards throughout the day. Rainfall maps from the agency capture showers staying put overnight in Cornwall and remaining in the morning, and gradually moving into southern Wales from around 1am today.

Those showers look set to move up the country, splitting off through Wales and following the southern coast to around Portsmouth by the early morning, around 7am, when the rain also reaches Bristol. Over the following few hours, maps show the rain intensifying once more in the southwest, tipping out between 4mm to 8mm per hour over previously sunny southwest England and Wales.

Eastern England, however, will remain comparatively pleasant for the day, with sunnier staying put in the region for most of the day as the west coast becomes increasingly trapped in the developing deluge.

By the evening, between 5pm and 6pm, the rainy weather will have moved further north to just south of the Scottish border, tipping out around 1mm to 2mm per hour over Cumbria and the northwest.

In southern England the rain will spread as far east as London by the evening, around 7pm to 8pm, with other eastern areas spared rainfall for seemingly the entire day. The Met Office has issued a weather warning for anyone living in western areas impacted by heavy showers, with the yellow alert activating from 6pm on Friday until 9pm on Saturday.

The alert states that up to 75mm (three inches) of rain could fall over the 15 hour period, with "quite windy" conditions powering the rainfall. The warning states: "Rain developing early Friday becomes heavier and more persistent later on Friday and persists into Saturday before easing from Saturday late morning."

The warning adds: "20 to 40 mm of rain is likely to build up widely by Saturday morning and 50 to 75 mm rain is likely over and near areas of higher ground, especially Dartmoor. Conditions will also be quite windy."