The recent decision by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to include caste enumeration in the upcoming census marks a significant transformation in the BJP's political strategy. This move indicates that the party is poised to adopt a key electoral issue traditionally championed by the Congress and its allies, such as the RJD and SP, and integrate it into its Hindutva agenda.

This development echoes the historical Mandal-Kamandal political dynamics, which combined Dalit politics stemming from the Mandal Commission report with the BJP's Hindutva ideology. In 1979, the Morarji Desai administration established a commission under Bindheshwari Prasad Mandal to identify socially and educationally backward classes in India. The commission identified 3,743 castes and communities as backward, representing nearly 52% of the population, and recommended a 27% reservation for these groups in public employment alongside SCs and STs.

When VP Singh became Prime Minister in 1989, he sought to implement the Mandal Commission's recommendations to secure the votes of backward castes. However, the process faced bureaucratic delays and judicial challenges, ultimately being enacted in 1993 during PV Narasimha Rao's government. In response, the BJP initiated its Kamandal politics to unite Hindu voters, successfully attracting those who were previously undecided.

Ironically, the BJP is now advocating for a caste census to gain electoral advantage while maintaining its core Hindutva stance. With Bihar's assembly elections approaching, the state's caste demographics present a prime opportunity to assess the effectiveness of this new strategy. The BJP's approach reflects its anxiety over the opposition's efforts to consolidate support among backward castes, particularly OBCs, who have been vocal about the need for a caste census. This concern is underscored by the Prime Minister's previous criticism of the Congress's electoral manifesto, which promised a caste census, labeling it as indicative of 'Urban Naxal' ideology. The BJP's campaign sought a significant majority in the Lok Sabha to amend the Constitution, which many OBC and Dalit groups perceived as a threat to existing caste reservations, leading to a shift in voter support towards the opposition.

Despite regaining some ground with victories in Maharashtra and Haryana, the BJP appears uncertain whether its hardline Hindutva approach will yield the expected results in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, especially given the growing support for a caste census. Recently, the Prime Minister claimed there are only four castes in India—women, youth, farmers, and the poor—an apparent attempt to undermine the Congress's demand for a caste census and the removal of the 50% cap on reservations for SC/ST and OBCs.

The government's announcement seems to follow a familiar pattern of surprising the opposition. The reaction from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi highlights this, as he expressed confusion over the BJP's sudden change of stance. The public's reaction indicates a shared sense of bewilderment.

This decision, while calculated, is a considerable risk for the BJP, which cannot afford to lose further ground. The situation in Pahalgam has already weakened its support base. A poorly executed military response will not quell the rising dissent among groups pushing for political change. The current global conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, serve as reminders of the prolonged nature of war, which the Indian populace and economy cannot sustain. The caste census announcement may serve as a strategic diversion from military issues, shifting focus back to political and caste-based dynamics.