US tariff jitters slow Indian IT firms’ deal momentum in first quarter
ETtech May 15, 2025 09:23 AM
Synopsis

Technology deal signings have slowed in 2025 amid tariff uncertainties and reduced discretionary spending, with 10–15% of contracts delayed or under review. Indian IT firms face falling deal-win announcements and a 20% drop in project rates, especially in Europe, despite a stable deal pipeline.

Deal signings in the technology sector have slowed down after a pickup at the beginning of 2025, as tariff-related jitters damped the momentum with an estimated 10-15% of contracts now estimated to be delayed or under review.

Indian IT majors are signing fewer deals as clients wait and watch before closing deals, data sourced by ET showed. Deal-win announcements this April fell to 15 from 19 the previous month, as per data from BNP Paribas’ deal tracker report. Signings had picked up to 20 in January from just a dozen in December. February, with fewer days, saw 16 announcements. Deal-win announcements had peaked at 26 in September.

The industry continues to maintain a healthy deal pipeline in the range of $70–$80 billion range, show data and projections from research firm UnearthInsight. “However, an estimated 10–15% of these deals may be delayed or placed under review due to prevailing tariff uncertainties and a dip in discretionary spending,” said Gaurav Vasu, chief executive of UnearthInsight.

The ongoing 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by the Trump administration has impacted enterprise decision-making cycles, particularly in key markets such as the US and Europe, Vasu said.

Kumar Rakesh, associate director at BNP Paribas and the author of the deal tracker report, said the macro movement continues to remain uncertain. “BFSI (banking, financial services & insurance) is holding strong while Europe is showing initial signs of weakness. Consumer confidence in Europe and the UK has also deteriorated,” Rakesh said.

The BNP Paribas report highlighted that the three-month (February to April) rolling sum of deal signings, which is a strong one-quarter lead indicator of the total contract value of deals, also declined to 50 from 55 in the previous three-month rolling (January to March). “Deal signings in North America remained steady m-m (month-on-month), but below last year’s trend. Deal signings in Europe fell sharply m-m, pulling down the overall momentum,” it said.

Deal volumes

Among verticals, BFSI reported the most deal-win announcements at six, followed by technology at four. The manufacturing segment’s deal signings held steady at two wins.

Infosys, IBM and Cognizant announced three deal wins each, followed by Tata Consultancy Services and Accenture at two each.

In April, Infosys bagged projects with Allied Irish Banks, Spark and Yorkshire Building Society, while TCS won contracts from Schneider Electric Marathon de Paris and ICICI Securities.

India’s over $280 billion outsourcing industry is also facing a more than 20% drop in project rates this year, as companies across the globe face heightened cost pressures especially with the multiple back-and-forth on tariff announcements by the US government.

The industry which was struggling from weak IT spending by corporates, saw a further contraction in demand. Typically, the non-urgent or discretionary technology spending boosts revenue for the traditional software service providers. While the key market of North America, which accounts for around half the industry's revenue, has seen a marginal pick up, Europe with an around 25-30% contribution continued to lag.

Also Read: US tariff clouds loom large over Indian IT's key revenue streams
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