The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has sparked speculation regarding its leader Chirag Paswan's intentions to contest the upcoming Bihar assembly elections from a general seat. This comes after Paswan's brother-in-law and MP Arun Bharti made several social media posts advocating for Paswan to run from a general constituency, emphasizing that he is not just a leader for the Dalit community but is ready to lead the state.

Interestingly, this discussion gained momentum when Paswan expressed his desire to return to Bihar to focus on state politics rather than remaining in Delhi. He stated, "I have previously mentioned that I do not see myself in national politics for long. My sole reason for entering politics is Bihar and its people. My vision has always been 'Bihar first, Bihari first,' and I want Bihar to thrive and be on par with other developed states." He added, "After becoming an MP for the third time, I realized that this is not possible from Delhi. I have conveyed my wish to the party that I want to return to Bihar soon."

Chirag Paswan has served as an MP three times and currently holds a ministerial position in the Modi government. He was elected from Jamui (SC) in 2014 and 2019, and is set to contest from Hajipur (SC) in 2024. Despite being included in the central cabinet for the first time in 2024, Paswan has shown reluctance to remain in the center and is keen on returning to state politics. His party is advocating for him to contest the assembly elections, signaling his ambitions for the chief minister position. Notably, the NDA has already announced that the upcoming Bihar elections will be led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, despite his declining popularity and health concerns. Sources suggest that Paswan is attempting to capitalize on the current political vacuum. However, he has clearly stated that there will be no change in leadership, asserting, "There is no vacancy for the chief minister's position in Bihar. Nitish Kumar will remain the chief minister after the elections."

While BJP leadership claims that Paswan is free to contest from any seat allocated under the seat-sharing agreement, some factions within the ruling party believe he is trying to exploit the confusion within the state unit. Recently, Paswan reiterated his readiness to return to Bihar politics, emphasizing his motivation to contribute to the state's development. His party has hinted that he might contest from a general seat, and all eyes are now on his public rally scheduled for Sunday in Ara, Bhojpur district.

Paswan's public statements come at a time when opponents of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar believe his time at the top of Bihar politics is nearing its end. It is said that the LJP (RV) leader aspires to be the face that unites major electoral forces in the state. Although his party secured five seats with a 6.47% vote share in the last Lok Sabha elections, it still falls short of the JD(U)'s significant 18.52% vote share.

A BJP leader acknowledged that Paswan has the potential to become a leader with acceptance beyond his party's traditional base. A senior BJP leader from Bihar remarked, "He does not want to limit himself to being a leader of just 4% of the votes. As long as the community supports him, he needs to expand his base, and he is playing his cards wisely." However, some state BJP leaders believe that the central leadership has failed to prepare faces in politically significant and unpredictable states like Bihar, giving the LJP (RV) leader an opportunity to capitalize on this gap. A senior BJP leader in Bihar stated, "If the state BJP leadership were defined, this wouldn't be the case. Leaders like Chirag Pawan are taking advantage of it. His signals that he might contest from a general seat indicate that he wants to become the next Nitish (Kumar) in Bihar politics. He has ruled Bihar for nearly two decades without a majority or a party with more than 20% vote share. He is projected from all angles. These days, the BJP creates not leaders but only workers."

Another discussion in Bihar politics revolves around whether the BJP is considering Chirag as an alternative to Nitish Kumar if the NDA wins the elections. Given Nitish Kumar's declining health, popularity, and influence, is the BJP searching for a replacement for him?

In the 2020 assembly elections, Chirag's party exited the NDA due to not receiving the desired number of seats in the seat-sharing agreement and contested independently, fielding over 130 candidates, all against the JD(U), which led to a poor performance for Nitish Kumar's party, landing them in third place with only 43 seats.

It was alleged that Chirag's exit from the NDA and his candidates against the JD(U) were orchestrated by the BJP to damage the party in which it had succeeded. After the 2020 assembly elections, the roles reversed, and the BJP emerged as a major partner in the NDA. If the NDA wins and Nitish becomes CM again but is unable to function due to health issues, Chirag could step in as a prepared and acceptable replacement.

The LJP's best performance in the 243-member assembly was in 2005 when it won 29 seats. The BJP also believes it must tread carefully in a politically significant and fragmented state like Bihar, balancing the interests of its coalition partners. Among the three major players in the state—BJP, JD(U), and RJD—two must collaborate to create a winning formula.

Top BJP leaders have stated that they have no option but to keep all existing allies together and move forward with Nitish Kumar as the face of the party. A BJP leader in New Delhi remarked, "Reports regarding his health are not good, but his face brings votes, and his legacy is significant. For now, it is a 'let it run as long as it can' situation. The party has no choice but to go with him."

For the BJP to remain a major force in national politics, Bihar is a crucial factor. The central government's announcement regarding caste census during the next population count has been a significant political issue for the opposition, especially in recent elections involving Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi. This is also seen as a step to strengthen the BJP's position ahead of the Bihar elections.

(This article is merely an opinion based on a piece published in a leading news outlet.)