There's a new challenger to the throne at Fort St George, as Tamil Nadu gets ready to elect its 17th assembly on April 23. And CM M K Stalin is still smiling.
As debutante and disruptor, actor-turned-politician Vijay has triggered a new political interest among the youth. Yet, DMK remains unperturbed while the prime opposition AIADMK-BJP alliance waits for an anti-incumbency wave.
Stalin's confidence stems from four factors:
Stalin came to power in 2021, after the first assembly election in three decades without archrivals AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa and DMK president M Karunanidhi. Cashing in on anti-incumbency faced by then-CM Edappadi K Palaniswami, Stalin projected himself as a worthy successor of his father, and made promises that appealed especially to women.
It worked. DMK and allies won 159 seats, 133 of them by DMK, and some other candidates who contested on its 'rising sun' symbol. The AIADMK alliance managed only 75 seats (AIADMK 66, PMK 5, BJP 4).
Five years later, it's Stalin facing anti-incumbency. A perception of rising crime, especially against women and children, and a spurt in narcotics-peddling have added to the opposition's arsenal. When half-a-dozen DMK leaders, including sitting and former ministers, face charges of corruption, Stalin should be as worried about voter sentiment as about ED. Nepotism remains a subsidiary poll plank as Stalin's son and deputy CM Udhayanidhi is being projected as the next in line.
Yet, the opposition lacks cohesion to stop Stalin's march. After AIADMK-BJP's defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2021 assembly polls, the two parties snapped ties in September 2023. Mutual mudslinging followed for more than a year-and-a-half before Amit Shah brokered peace and renewed the alliance in April 2025.
DMK and its allies were quick to call it AIADMK's 'surrender'. In fact, DMK's political narrative is built around this relationship - picturing BJP as villain and AIADMK as sidekick, with BJP-led GoI denying Tamil Nadu its share of funds, imposing Hindi to stymie the growth of Tamil, preventing archaeological excavations to establish its great past, and trying to divide the secular Dravidian land on communal lines. Of course, aiding this 'state enemy' is AIADMK.
Adding to AIADMK's headache are three expelled leaders - ex-CM O Panneerselvam, former Jayalalithaa aide V K Sasikala, and ex-minister K A Sengottaiyan. Panneerselvam, who recently joined DMK, and Sasikala have considerable influence in the Thevar community, which may play spoilsport for AIADMK in a score of southern constituencies. In western districts, where the Gounder community has traditionally backed AIADMK, migration of Sengottaiyan, a Gounder, to TVK poses a minor challenge.
Being in BJP company, AIADMK has virtually given up on minority votes - Christians and Muslims constitute about 6% each. Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and three smaller Muslim parties are part of the DMK-led alliance. The ruling party has been rigorously working to get support of several churches, too. Playing engineer of a 'Dravidian model of governance', Stalin is also seeking to be the new champion of federalism on the national stage.
Amid the clash of the two Dravidian giants, Vijay made a dramatic entry with his TVK in February 2024 and began active campaigning in early 2025. He suffered a setback last September when 41 people died in a stampede at his roadshow in Karur. BJP tried to rope him into NDA, but Vijay would negotiate only if he were named chief ministerial candidate, something Palaniswami would never agree to.
CBI repeatedly summoned Vijay to Delhi for questioning in connection with the Karur tragedy. CBFC refused to clear his 'last' political movie, Jana Nayagan, which was scheduled for a mid-January release. Just when the grapevine had it that Vijay was being arm-twisted, he clarified that his party would not tie up with BJP, his 'ideological enemy', or AIADMK.
Sitting in the fourth corner of this ring is Seeman and his Tamil nationalist party, Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK). Remaining unaligned, NTK has grown its vote share from 1% in 2016 to about 4% in 2019, and close to 7% in 2021. (BJP was at 2.6%.)
As DMK and AIADMK have finalised seat-sharing with most of their allies, AIADMK appears to get more seats to contest (around 170 of 234) than DMK, which has a lot more parties on its fold.
Before the model code of conduct kicked in, Stalin rolled out a government programme, 'Ungal kanavai sollungal' (Tell us your dreams), so that he could fulfil their wishes in his second coming. As for fulfilling Stalin's dream of retaining power, much depends on whether the opposition gets its act together.
As debutante and disruptor, actor-turned-politician Vijay has triggered a new political interest among the youth. Yet, DMK remains unperturbed while the prime opposition AIADMK-BJP alliance waits for an anti-incumbency wave.
Stalin's confidence stems from four factors:
- His 21-party alliance that consolidates castes, classes and a common federal identity politics.
- His government's welfare measures that includes free breakfast and lunch in schools, free bus rides, and ₹1,000-a-month dole for women.
- Prospects of Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) splitting anti-DMK votes.
- AIADMK's perceived subordination to BJP, which DMK projects as an outsider trying to deny Tamil Nadu its rights and to denigrate its identity.
Stalin came to power in 2021, after the first assembly election in three decades without archrivals AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa and DMK president M Karunanidhi. Cashing in on anti-incumbency faced by then-CM Edappadi K Palaniswami, Stalin projected himself as a worthy successor of his father, and made promises that appealed especially to women.
It worked. DMK and allies won 159 seats, 133 of them by DMK, and some other candidates who contested on its 'rising sun' symbol. The AIADMK alliance managed only 75 seats (AIADMK 66, PMK 5, BJP 4).
Five years later, it's Stalin facing anti-incumbency. A perception of rising crime, especially against women and children, and a spurt in narcotics-peddling have added to the opposition's arsenal. When half-a-dozen DMK leaders, including sitting and former ministers, face charges of corruption, Stalin should be as worried about voter sentiment as about ED. Nepotism remains a subsidiary poll plank as Stalin's son and deputy CM Udhayanidhi is being projected as the next in line.
Yet, the opposition lacks cohesion to stop Stalin's march. After AIADMK-BJP's defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2021 assembly polls, the two parties snapped ties in September 2023. Mutual mudslinging followed for more than a year-and-a-half before Amit Shah brokered peace and renewed the alliance in April 2025.
DMK and its allies were quick to call it AIADMK's 'surrender'. In fact, DMK's political narrative is built around this relationship - picturing BJP as villain and AIADMK as sidekick, with BJP-led GoI denying Tamil Nadu its share of funds, imposing Hindi to stymie the growth of Tamil, preventing archaeological excavations to establish its great past, and trying to divide the secular Dravidian land on communal lines. Of course, aiding this 'state enemy' is AIADMK.
Adding to AIADMK's headache are three expelled leaders - ex-CM O Panneerselvam, former Jayalalithaa aide V K Sasikala, and ex-minister K A Sengottaiyan. Panneerselvam, who recently joined DMK, and Sasikala have considerable influence in the Thevar community, which may play spoilsport for AIADMK in a score of southern constituencies. In western districts, where the Gounder community has traditionally backed AIADMK, migration of Sengottaiyan, a Gounder, to TVK poses a minor challenge.
Being in BJP company, AIADMK has virtually given up on minority votes - Christians and Muslims constitute about 6% each. Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and three smaller Muslim parties are part of the DMK-led alliance. The ruling party has been rigorously working to get support of several churches, too. Playing engineer of a 'Dravidian model of governance', Stalin is also seeking to be the new champion of federalism on the national stage.
Amid the clash of the two Dravidian giants, Vijay made a dramatic entry with his TVK in February 2024 and began active campaigning in early 2025. He suffered a setback last September when 41 people died in a stampede at his roadshow in Karur. BJP tried to rope him into NDA, but Vijay would negotiate only if he were named chief ministerial candidate, something Palaniswami would never agree to.
CBI repeatedly summoned Vijay to Delhi for questioning in connection with the Karur tragedy. CBFC refused to clear his 'last' political movie, Jana Nayagan, which was scheduled for a mid-January release. Just when the grapevine had it that Vijay was being arm-twisted, he clarified that his party would not tie up with BJP, his 'ideological enemy', or AIADMK.
Sitting in the fourth corner of this ring is Seeman and his Tamil nationalist party, Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK). Remaining unaligned, NTK has grown its vote share from 1% in 2016 to about 4% in 2019, and close to 7% in 2021. (BJP was at 2.6%.)
As DMK and AIADMK have finalised seat-sharing with most of their allies, AIADMK appears to get more seats to contest (around 170 of 234) than DMK, which has a lot more parties on its fold.
Before the model code of conduct kicked in, Stalin rolled out a government programme, 'Ungal kanavai sollungal' (Tell us your dreams), so that he could fulfil their wishes in his second coming. As for fulfilling Stalin's dream of retaining power, much depends on whether the opposition gets its act together.
Arun Ram
arun.ram@timesofindia.com