Assam Assembly Elections 2026: Retaining the northeastern state of Assam, where voting will be held on April 9, is very crucial for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. If the party returns to power for the third time, it can present the northeastern state as its citadel like Gujarat -- and the party will have more potential to silence its critics, who often mocked the party as a “North Indian one”. Also, this victory in the largest populated state of the northeast will only cement saffron’s position in the region.
This time, the battle is mostly a bipolar contest with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on one side and the Congress-led Asom Sanmilito Mancha (ASOM) on the other side. While the contest was expected to be a cakewalk for the NDA, it turned into a closed contest as the campaigning gained heat. However, the BJP-led NDA appears to have a clear advantage over the Congress-led ASOM bloc. Some of the factors that are appearing to help the BJP are:
The ruling BJP, looking for a hat-trick in the northeastern state, has built its own strong social coalition under the NDA. The alliance includes the state's oldest regional party, Assam Gana Parishad (AGP). While AGP is a pale shadow of its own glorious past, it still carries the symbolism of Assamese regionalism -- a reason why the BJP still believes in maintaining an alliance with the regional party.
The NDA consists of Bodo People’s Front (BPF), a party representing Bodos and currently, the ruling party of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). Notably, 15 assembly constituencies come under the BTC. While the BJP is contesting on 89 seats, AGP and BPF are contesting on 26 and 11 seats, respectively. In the Sivasagar seat, BJP and AGP are having a friendly fight.
Apart from these prominent regional parties, the NDA also consists of small parties and social organisations. Sanmilito Gana Shakti, a socio-political organisation of the Mising tribe, is a part of NDA whose leader Ranoj Pegu, the state education minister, has been renominated by BJP from the Dhemaji (ST) seat. It also renominated Bhubon Pegu from the Jonai (ST) seat.
He comes from the Takam Mising Porin Kebang (TMPK), the apex student organisation of the Mising community. The saffron party nominated Tankeshwar Rabha of the Rabha Hasong Joutha Mancha, the ruling party of the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council, from the Dudhnoi (ST) seat. Tankeshwar himself is the Chief Executive Member of the council. It also fielded Rama Kanta Deuri in the Morigaon seat. Deuri was associated with the Tiwa Jaitya Oikya Mancha.
This shows the NDA alliance is not only a political alliance but also a socio-political platform representing the political interests of the small indigenous tribes like Mising, Rabha, and Tiwa.
Apart from that, BJP has tried to counter the Congress-led ASOM’s Ahom identity card by giving tickets to 8 Ahom candidates. Ahoms are a crucial community concentrated particularly in six districts of Upper Assam. The party has also nominated 8 candidates from the tea-tribe community, which influences nearly 50 seats in the state.
One of the major influencing factors this time in the Assam elections is the delimitation. As a result of this, Muslim-majority seats, according to reports, have been reduced to 22-24 seats from the earlier 35. There has been an increase in the number of Hindu-majority seats. Take the case of the Barak Valley, where, after delimitation, 10 of the 13 seats have become Hindu-majority. Not only this, but many constituencies' demography has changed in such a way as to make the Hindus dominant.
This change of demography of the seats in the state is likely to benefit the BJP-led NDA, given the existing religious polarisation in the state.
Whether one likes it or not, religious polarisation is going to be a determining factor in this election. A significant chunk of Hindu Assamese, Hindu tribals and Hindu Bengalis are supporting the BJP’s Hindutva identity as they feel that their identity and culture are under threat. The Hindu Assamese and tribals view a large chunk of Bengali Muslims as illegal immigrants and support the BJP government’s eviction steps. So, they are largely polarised towards the saffron party. The BJP government has claimed to restore 1.5 lakh bighas from illegal encroachers. The support for the BJP among the Bengali Hindus living in the Barak Valley is mostly due to the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).
Already, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election rallies in the state has alleged that Congress indulges in minority (read Muslim) appeasement and facilitating infiltrators during its rule. It has to be mentioned that many people in the state view Bengali Muslims as infiltrators. From Modi’s election speeches, it becomes clear that the Hindutva agenda remains a crucial part of the BJP’s election campaign. That’s the reason the BJP’s manifesto promises implementation of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), a prominent Hindutva issue. Even Modi himself has mentioned this promise in an election rally held in Gogamukh of Dhemaji district of Upper Assam.
On the other side, this time Bengali Muslims are polarised towards Congress as they view the latter as a strong opponent of the BJP-led NDA. They view All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) of Badruddin Ajmal as a weak player and some of the community even view it as a B-team of the BJP.
A major factor that is keeping the BJP ahead is the successful implementation of the various welfare schemes by the state government. One of the major schemes is the Orunodoi scheme providing monthly assistance to women from economically weaker households. The scheme was started in 2020, and initially Rs 850 was given. Now it has been increased to Rs 1250. Last month, Rs 9000 (four months' instalment plus Bohag Bihu bonus) was paid to nearly 40 lakh women. This was, no doubt, a well-planned strategy done keeping elections in mind.
Apart from this, the Himanta government has been providing financial assistance to girl students for 10 months under the Nijut Moina Aasoni scheme, which was started in 2024. Girls studying in Class XI get Rs 1000, undergraduate girls get Rs 1250, and post-graduate girls get Rs 2500. In the first year, there were 1.6 lakh beneficiaries and the number rose to 3.5 lakh. The government launched a similar welfare scheme for boys this year with the name Nijut Babu Aasoni. There is also a pension for old-age persons above the age of 60. They are paid a monthly amount of Rs 250.
Ahead of the elections, the state government notified an increase of Rs 30 for tea garden workers, resulting in per day wages to Rs 280 in the Brahmaputra Valley and Rs 258 in the Barak Valley.
The government has claimed to provide over 1.5 lakh government jobs over the last five years, including more than 95,000 teachers. There has been a push to improve the overall infrastructure in the state. This includes building bridges over the Brahmaputra. Some of them like the Bogibeel, Bhupen Hazarika Setu are completed while 7 bridges remain under construction.
Once isolated Barak Valley is now connected not only with Brahmaputra valley but also with the rest of the country. The long-delayed broad-gauge expansion in the Barak Valley got a boost following Modi’s rise to power in 2014. Last month, Modi was there in Barak Valley’s heart, Silchar, to inaugurate and lay the foundation stone for various development projects worth Rs 23,550 crore.
This time Congress hasn’t included Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a party disliked by the Assamese Hindus, and it has formed alliances with two Assamese parties -- Raijor Dal-led by Akhil Gogoi, and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP)-led by Luringjyoti Gogoi. This is likely to prevent anti-BJP votes in Hindu Assamese-dominated areas, particularly Upper Assam, with AIUDF no longer in alliance with Congress.
The grand old party has also allied with All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) to counter BJP’s dominance in the hill districts of Karbi Anglong, West Karbi Anglong, and Dima Hasao. Apart from that, it also has the two Communist parties -- Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M), and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Lenninist) (Liberation) or CPI(ML)(L).
The saffron also faces the challenge of retaining its bastion, Upper Assam. This is because the top three faces of the alliance — Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi and alliance’s chief minister face, Akhil Gogoi, and Luringjyoti Gogoi — are fighting elections from Upper Assam and are from the Ahom community. The Opposition alliance is trying to utilise the Ahom identity card in Upper Assam against the BJP, whose chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is a Brahmin and comes from Lower Assam.
Tai-Ahoms and five other communities — Morans, Motok, Chutia, Koch-Rajbonshis, and Tea-tribes — have been unhappy with the BJP for not granting them ST status in the last 10 years of governance. Last year, the BJP government created a new classification called ST (Valley) — this move came after the saffron party realized growing dissent within these six communities. This belated move by the BJP although, may lessen the anger to an extent. However, this step isn’t going to completely erase the dissent as these communities won’t get ST status until and unless the parliament approves it. Sensing an opportunity, the Congress manifesto has promised to grant ST status to six communities if it comes to power.
Apart from this, the rebels are likely to be a problem for the BJP. Already, the party has expelled 9 rebels for contesting. This may harm the prospects of NDA in seats like Kaliabor, Dispur, Goalpara (West), and Barkhola.
