West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Result 2026: After two phases of voting in West Bengal, the wait is now ending. As soon as the night passes, counting of votes will start on 293 seats in the state and by 12 noon it will become clear whether Mamata Banerjee's government will be formed again in West Bengal or BJP will be successful in making the state bloom for the first time. This time the Bengal elections have been completely different in many ways and many new records have been made during the elections. For the first time in electoral history, voting was held in two phases. Earlier, due to violence, eight phases of voting were held in the state.
There was no news of even a single death in both the phases of this election. This time Bengal Maximum central force was deployed and record voting took place. Such voting had never happened before in the electoral history of the country. Simply put, the 2026 assembly elections have already written a chapter in the political history of the state that has never happened before.
This time there has been huge voting in entire Bengal. After independence, a new record has been made for the entire country. There was 84 percent voting in 2011, 82.66 percent in 2016 and 81.56 percent in 2021, but in 2026 all those figures have faded. This time the voting rate has crossed 92 percent, the voting graph is high in the places where re-polling took place.
In the first phase, about 21 lakh 11 thousand more votes were cast on 152 seats than in 2021 (average 13,800 more votes in each assembly). In the second phase, 9 lakh 8 thousand votes increased on 142 seats. Average 6,400 more per seat. Political analysts say that the return of migrant workers to their homes has acted as a very important 'X factor' behind such a huge increase in votes.
In the first phase, out of 152 seats, 81 percent were village voters, while 29 percent were Muslim, 24 percent were Scheduled Caste and 9 percent were tribal. At the same time, in the second phase only 53 percent were village voters, which means the urban influence was more. Here Muslims were 25 percent, Scheduled Caste was 23 percent and Tribal was 2.5 percent. It remains to be seen how much impact this difference in demographics has on the vote share of the two main parties? Also, it remains to be seen how much impact the Left-Congress-ISF-Humayun Party will have.
Being an opposition party, BJP had entered the fray mainly to capitalize on the anger of the people against the ruling party as well as on several specific issues. Needless to say, BJP is fueling the anti-incumbency campaign that has been going on against Trinamool Congress for 15 years. Sensitive incidents like RG Kar rape case and Kasba Law College have put immense pressure on Trinamool on the issue of women's safety.
BJP has also capitalized on the issue of corruption raised against Trinamool and the issue of cancellation of 26,000 jobs. Political analysts believe that due to this, the anger of the urban and educated middle class may go towards BJP to a great extent.
On the other hand, there is a lot of resentment among potato farmers due to not getting the right price for their crop. Potato farmers are believed to have influence on 26 seats in the state. In the 2021 elections, out of these, Trinamool was ahead on 18 seats and BJP on 8 seats, but in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Trinamool has reduced to 16 and BJP has increased to 10. This is a positive sign for BJP.
Profit margin is also in polarization. According to informed people, violence in Murshidabad, Waqf issue and Beldanga incident can cause political polarization in some areas, which will strengthen BJP's vote bank.
Although the atmosphere against Trinamool has strengthened due to being in power for fifteen consecutive years, it is needless to say that Trinamool Congress still has some strong foundation. According to political analysts, this is their big advantage in this election. Trinamool's organizational strength at the booth level is their biggest tool, which helps the voters to retain their votes at their booth till the last moment.
On the other hand, the skyrocketing popularity of Lakshmi Bhandar in rural areas is one of the main reasons behind maintaining the women's vote bank in favor of Trinamool. Along with this, there are projects related to people like Kanyashree and Roopashree one after the other.
Many people say that this time due to the effect of SIR, Muslim votes in the state have increased in favor of Trinamool. Apart from this, the resentment of the Matua community which has been kept out of this SIR list can also indirectly benefit the ruling party. On the other hand, the calculations of 2024 Lok Sabha elections say that Trinamool has regained its lost ground in Jangalmahal to a great extent, due to which they can get further benefits in this election.
Needless to say, many issues outside the direct fight between Trinamool and BJP are going to become X-factors. Everyone is considering the exclusion of 27 lakh names from SIR as the biggest 'X factor' of this election. The anger of such a large number of people can have a big impact on the ballot box.
On the other hand, it remains to be seen what impact BJP's promise of 'Rs 3,000 per month' will have in response to Lakshmi Bhandar's campaign to win the hearts of women. Apart from this, things like unemployment allowance, promise of early recruitment, DA can affect the young generation of the state and the job seekers and government employees to a great extent.
Apart from this, the role of the third force in this election also cannot be denied. Victory or defeat on many seats depends on how many votes the Left, ISF and Congress are able to garner in alliance or individually. If the anti-establishment vote is divided on many seats, BJP will lose, and if minority or Trinamool is attracted, then BJP will suffer loss.
Simply put, this election is not a one-sided wave. On the one hand, there are strong booth-level organizations in rural Bengal to promote public welfare projects and grassroots movements, on the other, there is tremendous anger against institutions, questions of women's safety and now it remains to be seen who will rise tomorrow. Will there be Mamata rule again in Bengal or will the lotus flower bloom for the first time?
Input-TV9 Bangla/Jaydeep Das
Read this also- Vidhan Sabha Chunav Result 2026 LIVE Streaming: Election results of 5 states will come on May 4, watch LIVE coverage on TV9 Bharatvarsh
