According to the latest forecast by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) weather models, the upper level strong winds required for a strong monsoon are likely to be fully established over South India only after June 5-6. This indicates that the arrival of southwest monsoon in Kerala may be mild or weak rather than vigorous and the intensity of the monsoon will increase gradually.
The south-west monsoon is considered the annual lifeline of India. This system brings warm and moisture-rich winds from the Indian Ocean, which bring rainfall to most parts of the country between June and September. This supports agriculture, fills reservoirs and provides relief to millions of people from the scorching heat.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a powerful computer-based weather model used by the Indian Meteorological Department. This model analyzes vast amounts of atmospheric data to predict weather patterns many days in advance.
According to its recent findings, the moist weather system coming from the west (Western Disturbance) will have to move further before significant upper level easterly winds over South India can strengthen sufficiently. Till then, the initial progress of monsoon over Kerala is likely to remain slow.
This year the behavior of monsoon has been irregular, due to which the estimates of the Indian Meteorological Department have had to be changed several times. The IMD had initially estimated that the monsoon would reach Kerala around May 26. Now this deadline has been revised and the possibility of official arrival has been expressed between June 2 and 4.
Pre-monsoon rains have occurred in some parts of Kerala, but all the conditions necessary for the official declaration of monsoon are not yet fully ready.
The Indian Meteorological Department declares the arrival of monsoon only when three conditions are met simultaneously, namely continuous rainfall over at least 60 per cent of the designated weather stations in Kerala. Westerly winds of fixed speed over the Arabian Sea. Fairly cloudy.
Presently rainfall and cloud conditions are favourable, but westerly winds over Kerala are not yet strong enough. The reason behind these weak winds is believed to be the cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which has affected the flow of monsoon winds. However, experts believe that the wind speed will start increasing from June 1.
In short, monsoon has almost reached the doorstep of Kerala and is likely to arrive in the next few days. But how the entire season will be, it still remains a big question.
Due to El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted below average rainfall across the country this year.
The IMD had initially predicted rainfall this season to be 92 per cent of the long-term average (LPA). Last week the department reduced it to 90 percent, raising concerns about the possible impact of El Nino.
Severe heat wave continues in North and Central India. In such a situation, timely rain is very important for the farmers preparing for sowing of Kharif crops. According to current indications, the monsoon may have a slow start, but it is likely to strengthen gradually later.
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