Meta Platforms is reportedly building a new standalone app focused on prediction markets, a move that could place the tech giant in direct competition with emerging platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to a report from The New York Timesciting employees familiar with the project, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently directed a small internal team to develop the product, which is currently known inside the company as “Arena.”
The project is said to be operating independently from Meta’s existing ecosystem of apps, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsAppand Messenger.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, Arena is reportedly being designed around a points-based system rather than real-money wagering.
Users would earn and spend virtual points when making predictions on future events, creating an experience closer to a video game than a gambling product. However, sources indicated Meta has not completely ruled out introducing real-money betting features at a later stage if regulations and business conditions allow.
The approach could help Meta avoid some of the legal and regulatory hurdles that have complicated the growth of prediction market platforms across various jurisdictions. Prediction markets allow users to forecast outcomes ranging from elections and economic data releases to sporting events and entertainment news. Supporters argue these markets can serve as useful indicators of public expectations, while critics warn they can blur the line between information and gambling.
One major advantage Meta would bring to the sector is scale.
The company says more than 3.5 billion people use at least one of its applications daily. Rather than building an audience from scratch, Meta could direct traffic from Facebook, Instagram, and its other services toward Arena.
That built-in distribution network could present a significant challenge to smaller rivals that have spent years acquiring users individually.
Employees familiar with the project reportedly described Arena as experimental but also as one of Zuckerberg’s highest-priority initiatives. The effort reflects a broader push inside Meta to identify new forms of online engagement as growth opportunities within traditional social networking become harder to find.
The report appeared to rattle investors in companies that have recently expanded into prediction-style markets. Shares of Robinhood Markets and DraftKings moved lower during intraday trading after news of Meta’s plans surfaced.
Both companies have increasingly explored event contracts and prediction-based products as they seek new revenue streams beyond traditional stock trading and sports betting.
Investors may be concerned that Meta’s enormous user base and financial resources could quickly reshape the competitive landscape if the company decides to aggressively pursue the category.
The prediction markets initiative is reportedly just one of several standalone projects being explored within Meta.
The company is also said to be testing a separate application called Meta Photos, which would focus on generating new forms of media using artificial intelligence.
Taken together, the projects highlight Zuckerberg’s growing interest in creating entirely new consumer experiences rather than relying solely on Facebook and Instagram for future growth
