The 2026 FIFA World Cup has reached its last 16 stage after an eventful first knockout round that saw several major teams bow out earlier than expected.

Germany suffered the biggest upset of the round of 32 after losing to Paraguay in a penalty shootout. The shock defeat has triggered managerial changes, with Jurgen Klopp tipped to replace Julian Nagelsmann following his resignation. The Netherlands joined them in elimination after falling to Morocco, extending their long wait for a maiden World Cup victory.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, France continued to stamp their authority as the tournament’s team to beat. Spain and reigning champions Argentina also produced impressive performances, while Portugal, Brazil, and England narrowly avoided early exits of their own.

Any doubts about the quality drop in this expanded 48-team World Cup have been firmly dispelled as the competition now features its strongest 16 sides.

Rankings are determined by combining current performance, future potential, and comparison with pre-tournament expectations:

France remain the benchmark at this World Cup. Unlike other top contenders who rely heavily on individual brilliance, Didier Deschamps has assembled a balanced, unstoppable unit driven by attacking depth. Les Bleus scored 10 goals in the group stage and followed that up with a 3-0 win over Sweden to reach the last 16. Kylian Mbappe netted another brace to lead the Golden Boot race, taking his career World Cup tally to 18 – surpassing Miroslav Klose’s record for the second time this tournament.

Spain entered the tournament among the favourites, though their early form didn’t quite reflect it. A frustrating 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in Group H raised eyebrows before they regained rhythm with a dominant win over Saudi Arabia and a heated victory against Uruguay to top the group. In their first knockout match, Spain looked every bit the title contenders, sweeping aside Austria 3-0 in Los Angeles with Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice. They now face Portugal in the last 16 as deserved favourites.

For Argentina, the Lionel Messi show continues. However, their narrow win over Cape Verde proved far from straightforward. Despite goals from Messi and Lisandro Martinez, they were twice pegged back before a 111th-minute own goal spared them a penalty shootout. Cape Verde’s spirited display won over fans worldwide and even pushed Argentina down in the rankings.

Portugal’s campaign has been inconsistent. Their only group-stage win came in a 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan, but they scraped past Croatia in the round of 32. After falling behind, Cristiano Ronaldo equalised from the spot and Goncalo Ramos netted a stoppage-time winner. A late Croatian goal was ruled out by VAR for offside, allowing Portugal to progress. Their ranking boost owes as much to others’ stumbles as to their own improvement.

Brazil, under Carlo Ancelotti, survived a major scare against Japan. Kaishu Sano’s opener had Japan dreaming of a historic knockout win, but Casemiro’s header and Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time strike turned things around. It was a close call for the Selecao, who have yet to display the dominance expected of them. Still, avoiding defeat to a resilient Japan side keeps them alive in the competition.

England’s last-32 clash with DR Congo was a near disaster. After going behind early, Thomas Tuchel’s men struggled until captain Harry Kane struck twice late on to rescue a 2-1 victory. Despite the late heroics, the uninspiring performance has left fans fearing an exit against co-hosts Mexico at the Estadio Azteca on Sunday.

Morocco, Africa’s top representatives, continued their fine form. After finishing second in Group C, they eliminated the Netherlands in a dramatic penalty shootout that saw five misses out of ten attempts. Their run to the last 16 shows their 2022 semi-final achievement was no fluke.

Co-hosts Mexico have been outstanding, winning all three group games and defeating Ecuador comfortably in the round of 32. With England next up and the Azteca’s altitude advantage, they enter as slight favourites.

Norway, back in the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, have impressed largely thanks to Erling Haaland’s goals. His late strike against Ivory Coast sealed their progress, setting up a meeting with Brazil that could produce another upset.

The USA remain a feel-good story of the tournament. Mauricio Pochettino’s team cruised past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, with Folarin Balogun scoring again. However, his red card means he will miss their last-16 clash with Belgium – a challenging but winnable fixture.

Belgium, no longer the powerhouse of old, produced a thrilling comeback win over Senegal. Trailing 2-0 at 86 minutes, they scored twice to force extra time before Youri Tielemans netted a 120th-minute penalty for a 3-2 victory. Now facing the USA, Belgium enter as slight underdogs but remain dangerous.

Colombia advanced with a narrow win over Ghana after topping their group, which included a goalless draw with Portugal. They now play Switzerland, a winnable tie before a potential rematch with Argentina, whom they pushed hard in the 2024 Copa America final.

Switzerland, consistent but usually limited to the last 16, have another opportunity to go further. Murat Yakin’s side have shown balance and resilience, and their clash with Colombia could be among the round’s most intriguing encounters.

Egypt, Africa’s most successful team, have broken new ground. After earning their first-ever World Cup win in the group stage against New Zealand and holding Belgium to a draw, they edged Australia on penalties to reach the last 16. However, Mohamed Hany made history for the wrong reasons, becoming the first player since 1966 to score two own goals in one World Cup.

Paraguay provided the biggest shock of the tournament by eliminating four-time champions Germany on penalties. After a poor start against the USA, their turnaround has been remarkable – a story that will go down in World Cup folklore.

Canada, the tournament co-hosts, round out the top 16. They earned their first-ever World Cup point, group win, and knockout victory by defeating South Africa. While they rank lowest among the remaining teams, Jesse Marsch’s side have already made history and will look to continue their dream run.