England have every reason to be optimistic as they prepare to face reigning champions Argentina in the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup on Wednesday. Their development over the past decade has been remarkable, to the extent that many now consider them favourites against the Lionel Messi-led Albiceleste. While Messi remains a formidable force capable of altering any game, Thomas Tuchel’s players will not be intimidated as they head into battle in Atlanta.

Both sides, despite being pre-tournament favourites, have endured dramatic and exhausting knockout journeys. England needed a late winner to overcome DR Congo, while Argentina required extra time to edge past Cape Verde in the last 32. The Three Lions then produced a resilient 3-2 triumph over Mexico at the Azteca despite being reduced to 10 men, while Argentina came from behind to beat Egypt by the same scoreline. In the quarter-finals, England and Argentina each prevailed in extra time against Norway and Switzerland respectively.

Though Tuchel’s men have faced their share of challenges, Argentina’s struggles in defending their crown offer England ample belief heading into this clash.

Shaky title defence

Considering their status as World Cup holders, Argentina’s campaign has been far from smooth. Despite a seemingly simple path to the semi-finals, they have laboured through the knockout rounds. Lionel Scaloni’s side breezed through their group fixtures against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, taking maximum points as Messi netted six goals in three matches. However, the knockout stage has exposed major vulnerabilities in their defence and consistency.

Argentina needed an own goal in the 111th minute to scrape past Cape Verde in the last 32, despite a massive gulf in quality. Their round-of-16 match against Egypt was even more dramatic — trailing 2-0 with 11 minutes left, they mounted a miraculous comeback to win 3-2 thanks to Enzo Fernandez’s late strike. In the quarter-final, Switzerland’s Dan Ndoye equalised before Breel Embolo’s controversial red card turned the tide. Yet, even with the numerical advantage, Argentina needed extra time and a brilliant Julian Alvarez goal to progress. Notably, they are yet to face any nation ranked in FIFA’s top 10. Having required extra time twice and enjoying less rest than England, fatigue could become a factor.

Defensive frailties

Argentina’s backline, which conceded only once in the group stage, has leaked five goals in three knockout matches — six if counting Egypt’s disallowed effort. This offers encouragement to England, whose attacking strengths align with Argentina’s defensive weaknesses. Swift counterattacks, wide play, and crosses have troubled the Albiceleste, areas where Anthony Gordon, Bukayo Saka, and Jude Bellingham thrive.

Defenders Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez have admitted the defence must “focus” and “improve”. Former England winger Chris Waddle also sees Argentina’s defence as their Achilles’ heel. Speaking to 10bet, he said: “I do believe Argentina are not the best defensively. We know how good they are going forward, but defensively, I’m surprised more teams haven’t attacked them. They lack pace and mobility. If you’re brave enough to go at them, they’re vulnerable. England will take confidence from that.”

Midfield battle crucial

The midfield could determine the winner. If Argentina’s central unit fails to shield their defence, they’ll be in serious danger. Scaloni’s choice of a diamond midfield — featuring Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, and Leandro Paredes — aims to overload the centre and create room for Messi, but it leaves wide areas exposed. Switzerland’s Ndoye recently exploited that space against right-back Nahuel Molina, who was left isolated behind De Paul. England’s Gordon and Saka could do similar damage if service from teammates is sharp.

For England, Jude Bellingham, Elliot Anderson, and Declan Rice (who should return fresh after being rested against Norway) will relish facing De Paul and Paredes, both past their peak. Fernandez and Mac Allister, familiar faces from the Premier League, will present a challenge, but England’s trio appear stronger physically and athletically.

Reports suggest Scaloni might introduce tactical adjustments, possibly adding the energetic Exequiel Palacios or winger Giuliano Simeone, or shifting to a 5-3-2 formation with wing-backs — a system he used against the Netherlands in 2022. England’s midfielders, however, must stay composed, as De Paul and Paredes are notorious for gamesmanship that could provoke unnecessary cards.

Messi’s declining influence?

Switzerland became the first team to prevent Messi from scoring at this World Cup, and that should give England confidence. After intense back-to-back knockout games against Cape Verde and Egypt, Messi was subdued by the highest-ranked opponent Argentina have faced in North America, managing only an assist for Mac Allister’s opener. He missed three clear chances himself, raising questions about fatigue and fitness, especially since he had previously hinted at doubts over his participation due to age-related concerns. Reports indicate he even skipped training on Sunday to manage workload.

Wayne Rooney, speaking as a BBC pundit, suggested Messi could be a defensive liability. “He can be an issue defensively for Argentina,” Rooney explained. “He doesn’t track back, though he still produces moments of brilliance — much like Bellingham does for England.”

Uneven attack

Beyond Messi, Argentina’s attack has lacked consistency. Messi’s eight goals place him six ahead of Lautaro Martinez, whose two strikes came from a penalty against Jordan and a late finish versus Switzerland. Julian Alvarez’s only goal was his extra-time winner in that same quarter-final, as he continues to search for form amid transfer speculation linking him with a move away from Atletico Madrid.

As a result, Argentina have leaned heavily on Messi’s output, with few others stepping up. If England can nullify him, Argentina might struggle to find an alternative source of inspiration. In contrast, England’s attack appears more balanced: Bellingham and Harry Kane both have six goals, Marcus Rashford has also scored, while Gordon and Saka have each contributed three assists, offering a wider spread of creativity.

Tuchel’s tactical edge

England’s most significant advantage could be on the touchline. The FA’s decision to replace Gareth Southgate with Thomas Tuchel has paid dividends. The German tactician, renowned for his sharp in-game management, has guided England to just their third World Cup semi-final — itself a historic achievement. Though England faced nervy moments, Tuchel’s leadership ensured they never truly looked beaten.

From bringing on Gordon against DR Congo to inspire Kane’s brace, to orchestrating a disciplined defensive display against Mexico with 10 men, and delivering a stirring half-time talk versus Croatia, Tuchel’s influence has been decisive. “I’m enjoying it a lot. I feel very alive in these moments,” Tuchel said after the Norway victory. “This is where I want to be — nowhere else in the world.”

If Tuchel masterminds another victory in Atlanta, he would be on the brink of etching his name into English football history.