India’s smartphone shipments are projected to fall over 15 percent in the second half of 2026 as memory chip prices surge, IDC said. Full-year volumes could drop to 128-130 million units from 152 million in 2025. Average selling prices have already risen 14.4 percent, while entry-level phones face the sharpest pressure amid weaker affordability and shrinking discounts.

India's smartphone market is headed for a difficult second half of 2026, as a sharp rise in memory chip prices pushes up handset costs and makes buyers more cautious. A report released by IDC projected shipments to decline by more than 15 percent in the second half of the year, pulling full-year volumes down to roughly 128-130 million units from 152 million units in 2025.

Two research firms, one trend

The findings align with an earlier projection from Counterpoint, which estimated a 13 percent decline in India's smartphone market for 2026 after shipments fell 10 percent in the June quarter, the steepest June-quarter drop in six years. Counterpoint noted that memory prices had risen nearly fourfold since September 2025, pushing average smartphone prices up by around 15 percent by the end of the second quarter, with affordability emerging as the market's biggest challenge for the remainder of the year.

IDC's own second-quarter numbers reflect this pressure. Shipments fell 11.1 percent year-on-year to 33.2 million units, taking first-half volumes down 7.9 percent to 64.2 million units, the weakest first-half performance in five years. Even so, overall market value rose 3.6 percent during the same period, as higher prices partly offset the drop in volumes.