Future Fund managing partner Gary Black on Friday sharply shifted his view on a potential SpaceX (SPCX) acquisition of Tesla (TSLA), saying he now “fully expects” SpaceX to launch an all-equity offer at a healthy premium for Tesla sometime this year.
“I fully expect $SPCX to make an all-equity offer at a healthy premium to acquire $TSLA sometime this year. It makes Elon’s life easier, and there are clearly shared synergies,” Black wrote in a post on X.
Just months earlier, Black dismissed the idea as highly unlikely. On May 22, he called a post-IPO merger “a very low probability event” with “no compelling business logic,” citing excessive dilution that would expand each firm’s market cap by 50% or more and a lack of clear synergies beyond Elon Musk’s control of both.
In June and July posts, he reiterated that the “math won’t pass muster,” warned of fiduciary issues for SpaceX’s board, and labeled hopes of a buyout “greater fool theory.” His latest stance marks a clear reversal, driven by shared synergies and the deal’s potential to simplify Musk’s dual-CEO role.
Black also predicts that many Tesla shareholders will sell on any announcement rather than wait 6-12 months for closing, citing intolerance of roughly 50% dilution and possible interim declines in the SpaceX shares received.
Speculation about a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger has circulated for years, dating back well before SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO, as investors long noted the companies’ shared leadership under Elon Musk and overlapping ambitions in technology and manufacturing. The chatter intensified in early 2026 following SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI and reports that the rocket firm was weighing a combination with Tesla. After the IPO, the rumors surged further, centering on a possible all-stock deal to simplify Musk’s dual roles and capture synergies in AI, robotics, energy, and space.
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell addressed the speculation on the company’s June 12 IPO day. She told CNBC a combination “might make Elon’s life a little easier” and noted “no question that there are synergies between Tesla and SpaceX,” though she stressed her focus remains on operations.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, on the EV giant’s July 22 earnings call, pointed to “more and more overlap” from collaborations like the Terafab chip project but declined specifics, saying any combination must follow “the appropriate process.”
On Friday, The Information also reported that Tesla is preparing to unveil a new design for its next-generation Roadster this month, which combines rocket technology from SpaceX for superior acceleration.
Neither Tesla nor SpaceX, however, has confirmed merger talks.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed within the ‘neutral’ territory at the time of writing, while message volume was ‘low.’
Meanwhile, sentiment around SPCX was ‘extremely bullish,’ coupled with a dip in retail chatter from ‘high’ to ‘normal’ levels.
A Stocktwits user opined that Musk is now focused on SpaceX rather than Tesla.
Another user expressed anticipation for the Roadster reveal.
While TSLA stock has fallen about 25% year-to-date, SPCX trades marginally above its IPO price of $135.
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