New Delhi. The world has been worried about increasing population and decreasing resources for a long time. But now the population picture is changing in the other direction. There are 64 countries and regions in the world where the population has crossed its highest level i.e. 'peak population'. The population in these places is now on the path of continuously decreasing instead of increasing.

The special thing about this change is that it does not only involve small or troubled countries. Big economies like China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Spain and Russia have also reached this situation. Its impact is becoming visible on schools, employment, pensions, health services and the future economy.

Impact of declining population from China to Japan

China, the world's second most populous country, has crossed its population peak. The population there is decreasing every year. The situation is more serious in South Korea. The fertility rate here is around 0.72. If current trends continue, South Korea's population is projected to drop to less than half by the end of this century.

Japan and Thailand are also going through the same phase. The impact of increasing elderly population in Japan is so profound that schools have been closed in many areas due to the decline in the number of children. The aging of the population there has now become not only a social issue but also a challenge for the economy.

In Europe, countries like Italy, Germany, Spain, Poland, Ukraine, Russia and Austria have crossed the peak of population. In Eastern European countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, along with low birth rates, migration of youth to other countries has also become a major reason for population decline.

Areas of Asia, Europe and Caribbean in the list of 64 countries

In East and East-South Asia, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Thailand have reached this situation. Europe includes Italy, Germany, Spain, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, and Austria.

Many areas in the Caribbean and Latin America have also passed population peaks. These include Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Uruguay, Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Curaçao, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Martin, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the US Virgin Islands, and the Falkland Islands.

What is behind the decline in birth rate?

This change is not the result of any one war, epidemic or natural disaster. Behind this are long-term changes in society and lifestyle.

To maintain the population of a country at its current level, an average of 2.1 children per woman is considered required. This is called replacement rate. More than half of the world's population now lives in countries where the fertility rate has fallen far below this level.

The increasing cost of urban life is also a reason for this. In big cities, the cost of housing, raising children and quality education has continuously increased. On the other hand, due to increased participation of women in education and employment, the decision of marriage and motherhood is being taken later than before. Many women are giving priority to career, while some are also deciding not to have children. The direct impact of these social and economic changes is now visible in the population figures.

Now when is India's turn?

This period of population decline is also an indication for those countries where the population is currently increasing. According to UN projections, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina could reach their population peaks in the 2050s.

For India, this change is expected to come in the 2060s. India, the world's most populous country, can reach its peak at that time at a population level of around 170 crores. After this, the phase of population decline is expected to begin here too.

Talking about the whole world, the peak of global population is estimated to come in around 2084. The total population of the world at that time will be approximately 10.3 billion. After this, the global population is also likely to go in the direction of continuous decline for the first time.

Why is America's population not decreasing?

Despite the low birth rate, America has not yet reached this situation. According to the UN, the peak of America's population is not likely to occur even by the end of this century.

The main reason for this is immigration. A large number of youth from foreign countries reach America and settle there. This compensates to a great extent the population deficit arising due to low birth rate.

This means that in future, birth rate alone will not decide the population of any country. Migration will also be a major factor in determining the direction of population and economy.

Four big challenges facing the aging world

Workforce shortage: As the youth population decreases, companies will face shortage of working people. In such a situation, dependence on robotics, automation and AI will increase.

Pension and healthcare pressure: The tax-paying working population will decrease, while the number of elderly dependent on pension and treatment will increase. This may increase pressure on the revenue and social security system of governments.

Importance of immigration: For countries where the birth rate is low, the arrival of foreign youth and skilled workers can become an economic necessity. On the other hand, countries with limited immigration may face more serious workforce problems.

Time is limited for India: Countries with young populations like India and Africa have limited time to take advantage of the demographic dividend. In the next 20-30 years, it will be important to provide better education, skills and employment to the youth. If the young population is not converted into a productive resource, it may be difficult to achieve the economic prosperity expected before population decline.

The world's new challenge: not too many people, people of the right age

For decades, the world's biggest concern was population growth. Now the picture is slowly changing. In many countries, the problem is no longer that the number of people is too high, but that the number of working youth is decreasing and the proportion of the elderly is increasing.

The shrinking graph of population in 64 countries sends a message to the rest of the world that the policies of the coming decades cannot focus only on population control. Countries will have to create an economy, health system, employment policy and social security that can survive in an era of shrinking and aging population.

Its second message is equally important for countries like India—the time to provide opportunities to the young population is now; Whether this population will become a future strength or a burden will be decided in the next few decades.