The New Year has started. If we talk about the stock market, the month of January is nothing special for investors. According to statistics, in the last decade, Nifty has seen a decline 7 times in the month of January. The main reason for which is the selling of foreign investors in the stock market in the month of January. Now the biggest question is whether there will be a decline in January 2025 also. Or investors will benefit. Let us also tell you what kind of stock market figures have been seen in the month of January in the last decade. Also, what kind of things are being expected this time?
The dominance of bears has been seen on Dalal Street in January. If we talk about the last 10 years, Nifty closed in the red in seven years. The main reason for this decline is selling by foreign institutional investors. Between 2025 and 2024, he has been a net seller six times in the month of January. The special thing is that the average return of the stock market in the last 10 years has been 0.38 percent.
Positive returns were seen in Nifty in the months of January of 2015, 2017 and 2018. An increase of 6.35 percent was seen in the month of January 2015, 4.59 percent in 2017 and 4.72 percent in 2018. The maximum decline in Nifty 50 was 4.82 percent in 2016, followed by 2.48 percent in 2021. In the months of January 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, a decline ranging from 0.03 percent to 2.45 percent has been observed.
In the last three years, FIIs withdrew a large amount of money from the domestic stock market in January. They sold Indian equities worth Rs 33,303 crore in 2022 followed by shares worth Rs 28,852 crore and Rs 25,744 crore in 2023 and 2024 respectively. FIIs were also net sellers in January 2016, 2017 and 2019, when they pulled out Rs 11,126 crore, Rs 1,177 crore and Rs 4,262 crore, respectively. Foreign investors made huge purchases in the month of January in 2015, 2020 and 2021 and invested Rs 12,919 crore, 12,123 crore and 19,473 crore respectively.
On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers on 7 occasions in January while sold shares on three occasions. DIIs bought shares worth Rs 33,412 crore in January 2023, while their next biggest purchase was Rs 26,744 crore in 2024. In January 2022, DIIs bought shares worth Rs 21,928 crore. For four consecutive years from 2016 to 2019, they bought domestic equities ranging between Rs 12,875 crore and Rs 399 crore. On the contrary, DIIs remained net sellers in 2015 (-Rs 7,882 crore), 2020 (-Rs 1,567 crore) and 2021 (-Rs 11,971 crore).
According to the Nuvama report, if we look at the seasonality of the last decade, January is generally a slow month, with Nifty often closing in the red 70 percent of the time. Mixed performance of Nifty Bank has also been seen. Well, this time in January the chances are 50-50. The report said that Nifty will struggle to cross the 24,350 mark and selling will continue to be seen until strong FII participation comes back. On the other hand, on the outlook for the year 2025, Shriram AMC Senior Fund Manager Deepak Ramaraju has expressed hope in the media report that the stock market will ride on strong economic growth and government efforts to promote infrastructure and digital innovation.
