An asteroid named 2024 YR4 is set to pass through our solar system in 2032. According to scientists, there is a 97.9% chance that it will safely pass by Earth. However, this also means a 2.1% probability of impact. Reports suggest that if a collision occurs, the asteroid could strike on December 22, 2032.
Where 2024 YR4 may impact
Scientists have identified possible impact locations for 2024 YR4 based on its trajectory, velocity, and size. However, due to its distant location, precise measurements remain challenging, making impact forecasts approximate.
According to Wired, NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project engineer David Rankin, along with other specialists, has mapped out a potential impact zone. If the 2% probability of impact materializes, the asteroid could strike a region spanning:
2024 YR4: How Big Is the Asteroid and What Would Be the Impact?
Discovered in December 2024 by the University of Hawaii’s Institute of Astronomy, 2024 YR4 measures between 130 to 300 feet in diameter. It currently holds a 3 out of 10 ranking on the Torino Scale, making it the most significant impact threat since Apophis, which will pass safely by Earth in 2029.
If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, scientists estimate an atmospheric explosion equivalent to 8 million tonnes of TNT—500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The blast radius could extend up to 50 kilometers, depending on the impact location.
Despite this risk, early warning systems would allow time for evacuations if needed.
Asteroid expert Teddy Kareta from Lowell Observatory, Arizona, reassured that the chances of impact remain very low, stating:
"There's a very, very small chance it hits Earth at all. If needed, we would evacuate people ahead of time."
Comparisons to Previous Asteroid Threats
In 2004, the asteroid Apophis was initially believed to have a higher collision probability with Earth than 2024 YR4, with a 2.7% impact risk. However, further observations ruled out any possibility of collision, confirming that Apophis will pass safely in 2029.
In response to 2024 YR4, the United Nations has activated planetary defense protocols to monitor its trajectory. Currently, with its Torino Scale level 3 classification, global efforts focus on continuous observation and potential deflection strategies.
One such method is kinetic impact, where a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid to alter its path. NASA’s DART mission (2023) successfully demonstrated this technique by redirecting the asteroid Dimorphos, proving its feasibility for future asteroid threats.
Where 2024 YR4 may impact
Scientists have identified possible impact locations for 2024 YR4 based on its trajectory, velocity, and size. However, due to its distant location, precise measurements remain challenging, making impact forecasts approximate.According to Wired, NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project engineer David Rankin, along with other specialists, has mapped out a potential impact zone. If the 2% probability of impact materializes, the asteroid could strike a region spanning:
- Northern South America
- The Pacific Ocean
- Southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa
- Countries at risk include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.
2024 YR4: How Big Is the Asteroid and What Would Be the Impact?
Discovered in December 2024 by the University of Hawaii’s Institute of Astronomy, 2024 YR4 measures between 130 to 300 feet in diameter. It currently holds a 3 out of 10 ranking on the Torino Scale, making it the most significant impact threat since Apophis, which will pass safely by Earth in 2029.If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, scientists estimate an atmospheric explosion equivalent to 8 million tonnes of TNT—500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The blast radius could extend up to 50 kilometers, depending on the impact location.
Despite this risk, early warning systems would allow time for evacuations if needed.
Asteroid expert Teddy Kareta from Lowell Observatory, Arizona, reassured that the chances of impact remain very low, stating:
"There's a very, very small chance it hits Earth at all. If needed, we would evacuate people ahead of time."
Comparisons to Previous Asteroid Threats
In 2004, the asteroid Apophis was initially believed to have a higher collision probability with Earth than 2024 YR4, with a 2.7% impact risk. However, further observations ruled out any possibility of collision, confirming that Apophis will pass safely in 2029.In response to 2024 YR4, the United Nations has activated planetary defense protocols to monitor its trajectory. Currently, with its Torino Scale level 3 classification, global efforts focus on continuous observation and potential deflection strategies.
One such method is kinetic impact, where a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid to alter its path. NASA’s DART mission (2023) successfully demonstrated this technique by redirecting the asteroid Dimorphos, proving its feasibility for future asteroid threats.
