Oblivious of the presence of the United States-led Israeli Defence Forces in the vicinity of Damascus, the Ahmed al-Sharaa government in Syria has unnecessarily opened a new front in the western coastal region of the country. By over-reacting to the activities of remnants of the Bashar al-Assad regime, mostly belonging to the Alawite community, the establishment is compelling the latter to re-group and revive. Global players are waiting in the wings to fish in the troubled water.
Hundreds of people, many reportedly civilians, were massacred in the latest bloodbath in the first week of March.
Before using excessive force against the Alawite minorities, Ahmed al-Sharaa administration will have to understand that there is no room left to repeat the crimes committed by Bashar al-Assad during his dictatorship.
There is hardly any scope for the ousted despot cooling his heels in Moscow to stage a comeback as the country in which he had taken refuge (Russia) is, especially in this changed scenario, least interested in backing such misadventure. So, not threatened by Moscow, the new government has allowed the Russian bases to remain in Syria.
Iran, which helped Bashar al-Assad fight against Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has now adopted a conciliatory approach towards the present regime in Damascus and has demanded the latter the restoration of a corridor to send military and material aids to those fighting Israel in Lebanon and Gaza, obviously Hezbollah and Hamas.
There is absolutely no denying the fact that the Rightists in power in the Zionist state are now openly daring to extend their territory up to the Euphrates in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Biblical idea of Greater Israel includes the whole of Syria (obviously Lebanon too) and Jordan—that is the entire land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Euphrates river.
The mistimed revolt in Syria in December last provided the Israeli Defence Forces an opportunity to completely decimate the entire Syrian army, air force and navy. As the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham regime lacked the will and wherewithal to take on the Israeli Defence Forces, it deemed it fit to finish off the surviving elements of the Bashar al-Assad reign.
There is another explanation to the latest lawlessness in Syria. Middle East watchers are of the view that since the state machinery had collapsed and there is no police and army to control the administration, the common people, may be out for revenge against the Baathist regime, had indulged in this senseless mayhem.
So, if under Bashar al-Assad it was the government machinery which was suppressing the masses, now it is free for all. Another challenge before the regime is on disarming the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Now that the United States-led Zionists are openly flexing muscles deep inside Syria, what plan of action (if it had any) Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has for the survival of the country? As per the criteria laid down in Political Science, Syria ceases to be a real State–it is just a large chunk of land. Bashar al-Assad was, like all the rulers in the region, a terrible dictator, yet till December 8, 2024, Syria was at least a State—yes, a disunited and weak one. It lost this status on that very day as Israel had virtually usurped its sovereignty, the most important feature for an entity to qualify as a state—land, population and government.
As the Israeli Defence Forces are within firing range of the capital, Damascus, the fall of Syria cannot be ruled out. Washington may be claiming that it has brokered peace between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish group, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and that the American army would soon be withdrawn from the country, the fact is that there is now no need for their presence —the Israeli Defence Forces have replaced them.
Needless to highlight, the United States and Israel have always been supportive of Kurdish insurgency in the entire region—Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Incidentally, the Kurdish population is spread over the oil-rich pockets of these countries. The seed of discord was first sown by Britain and France. The Sykes-Picot Agreement signed between them after the Ottoman Empire lost Palestine, Syria, Iraq, etc., first conceptualized the idea of Jewish and Kurdish homelands. The countries of the region strongly rejected both.
In the present situation, the IDF may never storm into Damascus as the new regime there has virtually compromised its sovereignty. It has no plan of action to push out the Israelis and thus get the Sovereignty restored.
Turkey, which is playing a crucial role in this whole campaign, is less interested in confronting Israel. It only pays lip service to the cause of Palestinians. Throughout the Gaza genocide, Turkey allowed the flow of piped Azerbaijani oil to Israel.
Notwithstanding the emotional and religious attachment of the common masses towards Al-Aqsa Masjid, the truth is that the rulers of Arab countries and Turkey are not interested in espousing the cause of homeless Palestinians. Jordan had refused to take part in the 1973 Yom Kippur War with Israel. Egypt signed the Camp David Accord in 1978 and in return got the Suez Canal and Sinai Peninsula.
Even the Baathists in Syria were not interested in countering Israel. It was only under the compulsion of Tehran that the rulers in Damascus allowed Iranians to use their territory to lend support to Hamas and Hezbollah.
Like Iran, Ansarullah of Yemen (Houtis) too had no territorial dispute with Israel. Yet it joined the 15-month long war and inflicted huge damage on Israel and its Western allies in the vicinity of the Red Sea. Unlike Hamas and Hezbollah, it has suffered much less loss and its firepower is largely intact.
The latest developments in Syria—crushing of Alawites and deal with Kurdish outfit, Syrian Democratic Forces—have made it amply clear that at least shortly the powers that be in Damascus are not interested in getting back the territories it lost to Israel in December last and at the same time are not going to allow Iran to play its role. Turkey may be a temporary gainer, but it is not in the mood to take on the Zionist state. It had not done so at the height of barbarity in Gaza.
