New Delhi Amid global concerns, Fitch Ratings on Thursday maintained its forecasts for the next fiscal year (FY27) at 6.3% while projecting India’s GDP growth at 6.4% for FY26.

Amid concerns about a global trade war, the global ratings agency lowered India’s GDP growth projections for the 2024–25 fiscal year and the current 2025–26 fiscal year by 10 basis points, to 6.2% and 6.4%, respectively.

According to Fitch, the growth estimate for the fiscal year 2026–2027 is at 6.3%.

Fitch reduced its global growth forecasts for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points and trimmed growth predictions for China and the US by 0.5 percentage points from its March outlook, in addition to India’s updated growth forecast.

“It is difficult to make any firm predictions about US trade strategy. In a special update to the quarterly Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said, “Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation.”

For 2025, the US GDP growth rate is predicted to remain positive at 1.2%. According to Fitch’s forecasts, growth in the eurozone is expected to stay well below 1%, while China’s growth is predicted to drop below 4% this year and next.

The global ratings agency predicts that India would be protected from the US tariff rise by the size of its internal market, which lessens dependency on outside demand.

According to a recent Morgan Stanley analysis, India’s low goods exports to GDP ratio and solid fundamentals make it the “best placed country in Asia” amidst the global unrest brought on by US President Donald Trump’s vow to raise tariffs.

“While India is exposed to direct tariff risks, we believe on balance India is less exposed to global goods trade slowdown, considering that it has the lowest goods exports to GDP ratio in the region,” said the research.

After an almost two-year low of 5.6% during the July–September period, the Indian economy gained speed and grew 6.2% in the third quarter of FY25.