Shares of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI.NSE) fell 2.5% on Wednesday after the company reported a 19% year-on-year rise in net profit to ₹299 crore for the September 2025 quarter, compared with ₹251 crore in the same period last year.
However, Annualized Premium Equivalent (APE), a key measure of new business sales for life insurers, declined 3% year-on-year to ₹2,422 crore, while Value of New Business (VNB) — the present value of future profits from new policies sold — rose 1% to ₹592 crore.
Fundamental View
According to SEBI-registered analyst SFP Research, ICICI Prudential trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 69 times, reflecting premium valuations typical of high-growth insurers but still below peers due to historically lower VNB margins.
The analyst highlighted that operational efficiency has improved, with the cost-to-premium ratio falling by 280 basis points to 19.2% in the first half of FY26, and the savings business cost ratio reducing to 12.7%.
ICICI Prudential maintained a claim settlement ratio of 99.3%, an average turnaround time (TAT) of 1.1 days for non-investigated claims, and a persistency ratio of 85.3% at the 13th month, which are all considered industry-leading.
SFP Research noted that the company’s product mix is diversified across 48.1% linked plans, 21.8% non-linked products, 19.3% protection, 5.8% group funds, and 5% annuity, adding that the insurer is shifting toward higher-margin protection and non-linked offerings to improve profitability.
Meanwhile, SEBI-registered analyst Finkhoz echoed this view, saying ICICI Prudential is deliberately moving away from market-linked products toward guaranteed and traditional plans to build more stable revenue streams.
Non-linked products have increased to 21.8% of the product mix from 18.1% a year ago, while market-linked products have declined to 48.1% from 51.6%, reducing earnings' dependence on market swings.
Finkhoz added that net premium income grew 10% year-on-year to ₹11,843 crore, operating expenses dropped 17%, and VNB margins improved to 24.5%, showing healthy profitability. The analyst said this shift makes ICICI Prudential more margin-driven than market-driven, a positive sign for investors seeking long-term consistency.
Risk And Mitigation
SFP Research pointed out key risks such as margin pressure, slower APE growth, sensitivity of unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs) to market volatility, regulatory changes, and competition from established and new players.
However, the analyst said these risks are offset by ICICI Prudential’s strong solvency ratio of 213.2%, well above the 150% regulatory requirement, along with a broad distribution network, a diversified product portfolio, and a zero non-performing asset (NPA) record since inception.
Finkhoz added that stable promoter holding of around 73% and consistent foreign institutional investor participation also support financial resilience.
ICICI Prudential: What are technical charts showing?
SFP Research said the stock remains in a downward trend, trading in a falling channel and facing resistance around the ₹610–₹620 zone, where it also meets the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are key indicators of short-term trend strength.
A close above ₹620 could signal a neutral reversal and open short-term upside toward ₹650–₹660, the analyst said.
Finkhoz observed that the stock has been stuck in a wide consolidation zone between ₹560 and ₹620 for months, with support near ₹576 (200-week EMA) and resistance around ₹610–₹620. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 shows mild weakness but not oversold conditions. The analyst suggested accumulating between ₹560 and ₹580 for a medium-term target of ₹740, with a stop-loss at ₹528.
What Is The Retail Mood?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ICICI Prudential was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume.
ICICI Prudential’s stock has declined 12% so far in 2025.
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<
