West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: West Bengal exit poll projections have painted a sharply divided picture, with different agencies offering contrasting forecasts on who may form the next government.
While some surveys suggest a win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), others indicate that the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, could retain power. The mixed projections have added uncertainty to an already closely watched contest.
Amid the flurry of predictions, one key pollster, Axis My India, has yet to release its findings. Founder Pradeep Gupta said the agency may not publish its exit poll for West Bengal on Thursday if it fails to gather a sufficiently representative sample.
Gupta said his organisation relies on face-to-face interactions with voters, but encountered reluctance during the polling phases. “When we tried to talk after the first phase, about 60–70 per cent of the people had their lips sealed. They were not even ready to say yes or no,” he told NDTV.
He added that without a representative sample, it would not be appropriate to project results. “On the basis of a 20–30 per cent sample, we do not believe it is right to predict any number,” Gupta said, noting that the team would make another attempt after voting concluded, hoping voters might now be more open to sharing their views.
Gupta also acknowledged the possibility that the agency might ultimately refrain from releasing any numbers. “I don’t have any opinion, because when no one is speaking, my boundaries are cut short,” he said, adding that it would be disappointing after extensive efforts if a forecast cannot be issued.
The West Bengal Assembly has 294 seats, with 148 required for a majority.
Voting in the state was conducted in multiple phases and concluded on Wednesday. Among the exit polls already released, projections vary widely. Praja Poll has estimated the BJP could secure between 178 and 208 seats, while Matrize and Poll Diary have also placed the party above the majority mark with projections of 161 and 171 seats, respectively.
