Is the INDIA coalition facing fragmentation? What is its current status and what are the prospects for the future? Following a successful outcome in the 2024 elections, will the coalition reconvene in 2029 or is disintegration imminent?
It is noteworthy that during the West Bengal elections, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) chose to compete independently, while its coalition partner, Rahul Gandhi, directed criticism towards the party.
Following the Assembly election results of four states and a Union Territory on May 4, it is important to examine whether the Opposition coalition INDIA will remain united or split. This decision will significantly affect India’s political stability and governance, as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dominance.
The coalition includes 26 key parties such as the Congress, TMC, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Samajwadi Party (SP), Nationalist Congress Party-Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Left-wing parties, including Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI (Marxist). It also comprises regional parties such as Shiv Sena (UBT), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP).
This coalition was formed to oppose the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the BJP.
Despite challenges, including Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar‘s departure to join the BJP, the alliance came together before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The Opposition bloc won 234 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, but they did not achieve a majority. Still, the parties claimed they played a crucial role in reducing the BJP’s seats to 240, which was lower than expected. The Congress, winning 99 seats, emerged as the largest party in the bloc and appointed Rahul Gandhi as the Leader of Opposition. He has taken an active role in Parliament and beyond to illustrate his leadership and encourage greater public political involvement.
Gandhi has delivered strong criticisms both in Parliament and at rallies, asserting that there is a “systematic assault on the Constitution.” The alliance’s fragile unity and the complexities of seat-sharing illustrate internal challenges, prompting caution among partners about their collective strength against the BJP.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), consisting of Congress, NCP-SP and Shiv Sena (UBT), secured only 46 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP+ coalition (Mahayuti) won 230 out of 288 seats in the subsequent elections.
While the INDIA alliance was formed to defeat the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ongoing internal disputes among its members are undermining its efforts. Notably, Mamata Banerjee of the TMC and Arvind Kejriwal of the AAP have chosen to act independently in their respective states.
Several parties from the INDIA bloc, including Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, Akhilesh Yadav’s SP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), supported the ruling Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly election held on February 5. However, the Congress, the largest component of the anti-BJP coalition, found itself navigating the electoral landscape on its own.
In Delhi, the BJP won 48 out of 70 seats, while AAP secured 22. Congress, unfortunately, did not win any seats. As the 2025 elections approach, Congress aims to draw votes from AAP, with some members arguing that it’s valid to critique an ally, given that AAP originated in opposing Congress. They contend that state elections differ from national ones, potentially allowing for strategic adjustments.
In the wake of the Delhi elections, discussions have intensified not only about AAP’s future but also about the Opposition coalition’s viability. Omar Abdullah, Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, made a notable remark as the election results were announced, highlighting the ongoing friction between Congress and AAP. “They continue to engage in conflict with one another,” he said.
Jharkhand provided a silver lining: the INDIA bloc, composed of JMM, Congress, RJD and CPI (ML) Liberation, won 56 of 81 seats. In Jammu and Kashmir, the India-aligned alliance, including NC, Congress, CPI(M) and Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP), garnered 49 out of 90 seats. Additionally, in mid-2024, the INDIA bloc won 10 of 13 Assembly seats in by-elections across seven states.
The Opposition alliance remains fragmented over differing perceptions of the Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi. While many see Congress as the principal challenger to the BJP, its often-unreasonable demands can frustrate regional partners. Although attributing the Opposition’s struggles solely to Congress may seem unjust, each party frequently prioritises its own interests in India’s competitive political landscape.
The absence of a unifying ideological narrative hampers the Opposition’s ability to present a compelling alternative to the BJP’s Hindutva ideology. Furthermore, the alliance has yet to adequately resolve its internal conflicts, rendering it a minimal threat to the BJP as the 2029 Lok Sabha election approaches.
Ultimately, the coalition appears to be a temporary arrangement rather than a lasting partnership, raising concerns about its capacity to effectively challenge the BJP’s enduring influence unless significant changes are enacted.
