India's rural poverty sharply declines to 4.86% from 25.7% in 12 years: SBI research
Rural poverty has dropped sharply to 4.86% in the fiscal year ending March 2024, down from 25.7% in 2011-12, primarily due to government support programs, according to a research report by SBI released on Friday.Urban poverty has also decreased, standing at 4.09%, a significant decline from 13.7% in 2011-12."The sharp decline in rural poverty ratio is on account of higher consumption growth in lowest 0-5 per cent decile with significant government support and such support is important as we also find that change in food prices has a significant impact on not just food expenditures, but overall expenditure in general," said the SBI research on consumption expenditure survey.The latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, indicates a decline in consumption inequality in both rural and urban areas during the August 2023-July 2024 period compared to the previous year.According to SBI's research, the survey highlights a significant reduction in rural poverty, estimated at 4.86% for 2023-24 (down from 7.2% in FY23 and 25.7% in FY12), while urban poverty is estimated at 4.09% (down from 4.6% in FY23 and 13.7% in FY12).However, the research notes that these figures may be subject to minor revisions once the 2021 census is completed and the updated rural-urban population share is published."We believe urban poverty could decline even further. At an aggregate level, we believe poverty rates in India could now be in the range of 4-4.5 per cent with almost minimal existence of extreme poverty," it said.SBI stated that enhanced physical infrastructure is playing a key role in transforming rural mobility. It also noted that one of the reasons behind the shrinking horizontal income gap between rural and urban areas, as well as the vertical income gap within rural income classes, is the improvement in infrastructure."The difference between rural and urban monthly per capita consumption expenditure/ Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) to rural MPCE is now at 69.7 per cent, a rapid decline from 88.2 per cent in 2009-10...mostly due to the initiatives the government has taken in terms of DBT transfers, building rural infrastructures, augmenting farmer’s income, (and) improving the rural livelihood significantly," it said.The research estimates that food inflation has a greater dampening effect on consumption demand in lower-income states compared to higher-income states, indicating that people in rural areas of low-income states tend to be more risk-averse than those in high-income states."The recent release of CES (2023-24) may have an impact on food CPI and subsequently on overall CPI as the weights of major food items has revised from 47.8% in 2011-12 to 43.4% in 2023-24 at all India level," SBI said.Most high-income states report savings rates higher than the national average of 31%.The SBI report suggests that Uttar Pradesh and Bihar exhibit low savings rates, likely due to higher outward migration.The newly estimated poverty line for 2023-24 is Rs 1,632 in rural areas and Rs 1,944 in urban areas.