Football is so often a game of fine margins, where even entire seasons can end up being defined by short periods in individual games, or even split-second moments when everything seems to change.
Atletico Madrid fans will certainly be reflecting on what might have been this year, after a promising campaign for their team crumbled before their eyes in the space of just a few short weeks.
If anything, they shaded their Champions League round-of-16 derby against Real Madrid, but lost it on penalties, with Julian Alvarez’s adjudged double-kick still a sore point in the red and white half of the Spanish capital.
They were beaten by the odd goal in nine over two legs against Barcelona in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey, while they would still be in the league title race had they not surrendered a two-goal lead, with 20 minutes to play, to lose against the same opposition in LaLiga in the middle of March.
Atletico Madrid’s 2024/25 season has largely been a microcosm of their recent history, in an era when they are by some distance Spain’s third most powerful club, yet still frustratingly prone to falling just short when it comes to the big moments against the “big two”.
It all points towards another summer rebuild at the Estadio Metropolitano, just one year on from one of their boldest transfer windows in the Diego Simeone era.
Even after Atleti’s recent cup exits, publicly at least, Simeone remained in positive mood and optimistic about the overall direction of the club.
Speaking in early April, he claimed “the club is in a moment of pure growth, we have brought in very good players who are performing at a very high level.”
“We had a great Champions League, a great cup run, in LaLiga we are competing well and I am not moving that opinion in any way.”
However, it’s hard to avoid a sense that some of those early season solutions that sparked a 15-game club record winning streak, helped to paper over the cracks in the short-term, but ultimately have been exposed by stiffer examinations over the past couple of months.
That’s particularly true at the back, which may be the focal point of their transfer activity this summer.
Axel Witsel, Cesar Azpilicueta and Reinildo are all out of contract, while Clement Lenglet’s loan from Barcelona will also expire.
Robin Le Normand and Jose Maria Gimenez will be the only central defenders remaining on the club’s books, with the club currently being linked with a move for Tottenham’s Cristian Romero.
Some kind of permanent deal for Lenglet could potentially be arranged, with the Frenchman having no real future at Barca, but it’s clear that Atleti will also need to target improvements at full-back.
The jury is still out on Javi Galan and Nahuel Molina, with Marcos Llorente, a midfielder by trade, the only Atleti player who has consistently shone in the role this season.
Atleti could feasibly persist with Llorente and Molina as the two primary options at right-back next term, but it’s likely they’ll be in the market for a new left-back this summer, and that’s one of the big decisions they really need to get right if Los Rojiblancos are to close the gap on Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Unless there is a major sale, Atletico Madrid may not be in a position to spend big on more than one or two players in the upcoming window.
They are well blessed in terms of numbers in the middle of the park, but if funds permit, we could see one big name midfield addition that could really add an extra dimension to Atleti’s play next term. There is currently speculation that Villarreal’s Alex Baena could be that player.
The 23-year-old has registered 21 assists in LaLiga since the beginning of last season, the most of any player in the division during that period. His creative qualities would certainly be welcome in an Atletico Madrid side that is currently dealing with the declining impact of Antoine Griezmann who had only set up one goal in the league since early October, before assisting in the 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano last week.
Baena’s presence would also help ease the burden on Rodrigo De Paul who hasn’t quite hit the heights many hoped for when he joined from Udinese in 2021.
The Spain international is currently thriving in the left-sided midfield role in a 4-4-2 system at Villarreal, and in theory at least, he could slot quite naturally into a similar position for Atletico Madrid were he to make the move. Baena could also potentially operate as a number 10 behind a striker, although that would make it harder for him to get into positions to whip crosses into the box.
Villarreal have tended to cash in on their big assets in recent years, although qualifying for the Champions League would potentially strengthen their resolve to keep Baena should they end up pipping Real Betis to 5th place.
Atleti may feel as though they can land the player for less than his €60m release clause, although they’ll be braced for potential interest from abroad in the midfielder which could end up driving the price up.
Only last summer, Atletico Madrid showed that they are willing to spend big on the right player, with their deal for Julian Alvarez potentially rising to a reported €95m if certain clauses are met.
All things considered, Alvarez has been a hit in Madrid, with some crucial goals at various points in the season, among the 27 he has scored so far in all competitions. That’s a very healthy return playing for a club where many other strikers have struggled.
Unless a crazy offer comes in from elsewhere at some stage, Alvarez looks set to be Atleti’s number nine for many seasons to come, and that leaves Simeone and the club’s recruitment team needing to solve the puzzle of how best to complement the 2022 World Cup winner.
At 34, Griezmann is not the long-term solution, although the Frenchman could still have an important role to play in the 2025/26 season, but perhaps no longer as the undisputed starter he has been throughout his two spells at Atletico Madrid to date.
With the club’s title challenge over, Simeone is currently giving greater game-time to Alexander Sorloth, another 2024 addition, and a player who averages a goal every 99 minutes in LaLiga this term, despite being restricted to only 12 starts.
The final five games could prove very useful in terms of developing the Alvarez-Sorloth partnership with an eye on next season, particularly if Baena ends up signing given how well he linked up with the Norwegian when the two players were at Villarreal last season.
The alternative option would be to dive into the transfer market again for another new forward, with Sporting’s Viktor Gyokeres one rumoured target, although it feels like Atleti may have other priorities this summer.
