Asteroid (Representative Image)
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which once held the highest recorded chance of impacting Earth, has re-emerged in scientific discussions. Its updated path suggests a slightly increased chance of striking the Moon in 2032. While not visible from Earth now, the asteroid has helped scientists improve tracking and defense strategies.
Slight Increase in Moon Impact Chance
Asteroid 2024 YR4 came into focus again after new observations in May using the James Webb Space Telescope. The telescope's Near-Infrared Camera helped researchers refine its projected orbit. The updated data, led by Andy Rivkin's team at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, narrowed the predicted path by 20%. This increased the chance of a Moon impact from 3.8% to 4.3%. NASA noted that small changes in data often affect impact probabilities, but even a collision would not disturb the Moon's orbit.
Asteroid's Early Risk to Earth
The asteroid was first seen on December 27, 2024. It was measured to be about 174 to 220 feet long. Early predictions showed it had more than a 1% chance of hitting Earth. By February, the risk climbed to 3.1%. If it had entered Earth's atmosphere, it might have caused damage across a wide zone. NASA estimated an airburst over land could break windows and cause structural harm. However, it was unlikely to cause tsunamis if it hit the ocean.
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Risk to Earth Decreased Rapidly
New orbital data in February reduced concerns. The impact chance dropped to 1.5%, then to 0.3%, and finally to 0.004% by February 24. NASA confirmed it would safely pass Earth in 2032. Later studies also ruled out future threats. Observations from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii suggested it came from the central asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter before moving to a near-Earth orbit.
Future Tracking Plans in Place
Since April, the asteroid has been too distant to observe. Scientists plan to monitor it again in 2028. They aim to gather more data about its shape and composition. These details help predict its behavior. The asteroid has already allowed researchers to test all stages of planetary defense — from detection to public communication.
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A Useful Case for Planetary Defense
Astronomer Pawan Kumar said there is no danger even if the asteroid hits the Moon. Any debris would burn up in Earth's atmosphere. He added that 2024 YR4 gave scientists a real case to prepare for future asteroid threats. The tracking of this asteroid acted as a complete rehearsal for how Earth might respond to a real threat.
FAQs
Will asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the Moon in 2032?
There is a 4.3% chance it could strike the Moon, but even if it does, it will not cause any major effects or change the Moon’s orbit.
Is Earth safe from asteroid 2024 YR4 now and in the future?
Yes, NASA and other agencies have confirmed it poses no risk to Earth in 2032 or at any time in the future based on updated orbit data.
Slight Increase in Moon Impact Chance
Asteroid 2024 YR4 came into focus again after new observations in May using the James Webb Space Telescope. The telescope's Near-Infrared Camera helped researchers refine its projected orbit. The updated data, led by Andy Rivkin's team at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, narrowed the predicted path by 20%. This increased the chance of a Moon impact from 3.8% to 4.3%. NASA noted that small changes in data often affect impact probabilities, but even a collision would not disturb the Moon's orbit.Asteroid's Early Risk to Earth
The asteroid was first seen on December 27, 2024. It was measured to be about 174 to 220 feet long. Early predictions showed it had more than a 1% chance of hitting Earth. By February, the risk climbed to 3.1%. If it had entered Earth's atmosphere, it might have caused damage across a wide zone. NASA estimated an airburst over land could break windows and cause structural harm. However, it was unlikely to cause tsunamis if it hit the ocean.Also Read: MindsEye: Release date, storyline, gameplay, main character, bonus content and platforms
Risk to Earth Decreased Rapidly
New orbital data in February reduced concerns. The impact chance dropped to 1.5%, then to 0.3%, and finally to 0.004% by February 24. NASA confirmed it would safely pass Earth in 2032. Later studies also ruled out future threats. Observations from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii suggested it came from the central asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter before moving to a near-Earth orbit.Future Tracking Plans in Place
Since April, the asteroid has been too distant to observe. Scientists plan to monitor it again in 2028. They aim to gather more data about its shape and composition. These details help predict its behavior. The asteroid has already allowed researchers to test all stages of planetary defense — from detection to public communication.Also Read: Jujutsu Kaisen Season 2 Movie: When will film release? Here’s global release date and what we know about Season 3
A Useful Case for Planetary Defense
Astronomer Pawan Kumar said there is no danger even if the asteroid hits the Moon. Any debris would burn up in Earth's atmosphere. He added that 2024 YR4 gave scientists a real case to prepare for future asteroid threats. The tracking of this asteroid acted as a complete rehearsal for how Earth might respond to a real threat.FAQs
Will asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the Moon in 2032?
There is a 4.3% chance it could strike the Moon, but even if it does, it will not cause any major effects or change the Moon’s orbit.
Is Earth safe from asteroid 2024 YR4 now and in the future?
Yes, NASA and other agencies have confirmed it poses no risk to Earth in 2032 or at any time in the future based on updated orbit data.
