Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) led by Mukesh Ambani is set to enter a recovery cycle with its EBITDA projected to grow by 19% or more in FY26 according to Bernstein Research. The brokerage firm anticipates significant earnings growth driven by the telecom and retail segments alongside a rebound in refining margins. Key Drivers of Growth Telecom (Jio):  12% ARPU Growth: Jios Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to rise by 12% without tariff hikes alongside subscriber growth of 4-5%. Market Share Expansion: Jio is projected to reach 500 million subscribers and capture 48% of the revenue share by FY26. Revenue Growth: Jio is anticipated to achieve a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue over the next three years. Retail A recovery in retail is expected after challenges due to store rationalization and macroeconomic factors. Retail EBITDA is forecasted to return to double-digit growth with the segment achieving 15% growth in FY26. Refining Margins Gross refining margins (GRMs) are set to rebound growing by 5.4% year-over-year in FY26. Improved GRMs and a weaker Indian Rupee will benefit EBITDA margins. New Energy and Petrochemicals Continued expansion in solar and battery capacities within the New Energy segment. Stable valuation of refinery and petrochemical businesses at 7.0x FY26 EV/EBITDA. Market Performance and Valuation Since September 2024 RIL has seen a $50 billion drop in market capitalization driven by a 13% reduction in EPS and a 10% decrease in consensus EBITDA. RIL is currently trading at 10.1x 1-year forward EV/EBITDA a 17% discount compared to its 3-year average. Updated Target Price Bernstein has revised its target price for Reliance Industries to Rs 1520 implying a 25% upside. Outlook for FY26 and Beyond EBITDA Recovery: After a challenging FY24 EBITDA is expected to stabilize and grow steadily reaching a steady-state level of $22 billion by FY26. Earnings Growth: EPS is forecasted to grow at a 20% CAGR through FY26. Free Cash Flow: Improving free cash flow as the capital expenditure cycle moderates further enhancing shareholder value.